Maybe you missed it, but in June 2011, Standard Chartered – the 158 year old U.K. bank released a compelling report which called for $5000 gold in the next 10 years. That “call” failed to identify the U.S. debt deal debacle, an S&P downgrade of U.S. debt, or rumors of a major French bank on the brink of failure. Today, gold rallied to over $1800/oz.
What is really going on with gold? Well, low or even negative real interest rates, fiscal concerns, and an insatiable appetite for a status symbol in the emerging markets is fueling gold prices. Market participants see gold as protection against fiat money, inflation, hyperinflation, dollar debasement, debt monetization, etc. A recent report by HDFC Bank (Housing Development Finance Corporation) says emerging market central banks have put $10 billion into gold year-to-date, buying nearly 180 tons of gold this year, more than twice the 73 tons bought by central banks around the world last year.
What will it take to stop the Gold rally? Simply put, an increase in interest rates, however, yesterday the Fed told us that won’t happen at least until after mid-2013.