This morning’s retail sales figure from the Census Bureau shows a Y/Y increase (unadjusted) of only 1.79%. That is the second worst month since the recovery took hold in later 2009. The worst month was actually last month, which means the current condition in retail trade is, by far, the worst two months since the Great Recession.

ABOOK Apr 2013 Retail Sales Recovery Term

In fact, as I pointed out last month, retail sales are at levels consistent with overall recession and look nothing like a forward moving economy (recovery or otherwise).

ABOOK Apr 2013 Retail Sales Longer Term

From March 2010 thru May 2012, the average Y/Y increase was 7.11%. During the height of the housing bubble (’03-’06), the average was 6.38%. Right now the 6-month average is below 3.6%, and is on track to fall rapidly into 2013. The last time the 6-month average was below 3.6% was April 2008. As is the case with each economic contraction, nominal sales begin to lag established trends and then fall further and further behind.

ABOOK Apr 2013 Retail Sales Trend Unadj

Removing food services and autos, retail trade so far in 2013 is contracting in real terms. No doubt that is the prime reason for the decline in retail trade jobs shown in the March employment report, indicating that businesses are beginning to react to sales.

ABOOK Apr 2013 Retail Sales ex Auto

Even in the Motor Vehicle trade, the one single bright spot in the entire “recovery” period, there has been a noticeable slowing toward the end of 2012 that has remained in early 2013.

ABOOK Apr 2013 Retail Sales Mot Veh

And largely confirming the disaster in PC sales (and weakness in mobile phones) that I noted yesterday, electronic and appliance stores continue to struggle, declining 4.47% Y/Y in March after falling 2.43% in February. There have been only two monthly increases in the segment in the past twelve months.

ABOOK Apr 2013 Retail Sales Elect Appliances

The slowing and contraction in real growth of retail sales is pretty much broad-based. In the past four months, general merchandise stores have seen declines of 3.7%, 3.3%, 5.1% and 3.6%. These stores are certainly losing market share to online retailers, but the overall growth in these nonstore retailers is not making up the difference. Combining the two segments we see that the overall downward trend is unmistakable.

ABOOK Apr 2013 Retail Sales Genl + Nonstore

In nearly every segment we see the worst growth levels of the recovery. And that isn’t necessarily the correct frame of reference – as I noted above, these results are more recessionary than recovery or general growth. There is little ambiguity in these results – consumers are not spending enough to support the general economy and it is manifesting in broader terms.