- The dollar is very stretched in momentum and sentiment terms and, thus, due for a consolidation or brief correction. This is true for all the major and commodity currencies.
- However, the key cyclical drivers for exchange rates – relative growth trends and interest rate differentials – should remain dollar-supportive this year.
- Most likely, after a pause, the dollar advance should persist albeit at a more moderate and volatile pace, with some narrowing of the rise: currencies in some healthier, export-driven economies should mildly outperform the dollar.
As always, please feel free to contact me with any questions or concerns.
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For information on Alhambra Investment Partners’ money management services and global portfolio approach, Douglas R. Terry, CFA is reachable at: email@example.com