Back in October, the Bank of Korea raised its economic outlook for the country. The central bank’s economic models foresaw rising fortunes, leading them toward a central tendency of 3% growth. At that level, Korea’s economy would be growing at the fastest rate in three years (what happened in between?).

It was as much a nod to the idea of “globally synchronized growth.” The bank actually came right out and said so, attributing the increase in its modeled projections to capital expenditures but more so South Korea’s far-reaching export sector. Global demand was rising, they believed, so for an export sensitive economy that would be very good news.

Policymakers were so confident about it that a month later in November 2017 the central bank’s Monetary Policy Board voted to raise its benchmark rate for the first time in more than six years. From a record low of 1.25%, the policy target was boosted by 25 bps in anticipation of what all central bankers right now are talking about – a boom.

Korea’s export sector, however, isn’t as widely diversified as that of other nations. Several key industries make up the lion’s share of outbound trade. At the top of the list is automobiles where the Hyundai and Kia brands dominate.

Earlier this month, in what was a clear warning, South Korean automakers reported rather dismal results for 2017, particularly Q4. Total sales among the country’s top 5 OEM’s, Hyundai, Kia, GM Korea, Renault Samsung, and Ssangyong, were reported to have been 8,196,053 units. That was down a rather stark 6.9% from what was sold in 2016.

Though domestic car sales were lower, too, falling 2.4% year-over-year, by far it was the export of vehicles that dragged down results. These manufacturers sold 1.55 million units inside South Korea in 2017, but 6.65 million outside. Thus, a 7.9% contraction in vehicle exports really stings the overall Korean economy.

That fact was reinforced by GDP statistics released yesterday. For the first time since 2008, South Korean real GDP shrank quarter-over-quarter. Exports fell by a stunning 5.5%, the largest quarterly decline in three decades. Construction spending also fell, really putting a dent in those October projections.

Though these are the results from just a single quarter, they should still draw some broad attention and scrutiny for no other reason than the remarkable stability of this particular economy. Though growth may occasionally be weak on the peninsula, negative numbers there are a true rarity. Despite all that has happened to and around Asia, GDP has contracted in only four quarters total, including the latest one, since the Asian flu of the late nineties. Being presented with one, particularly right now, demands some serious consideration especially with regard to the main idea setting global expectations.

Maybe this is a one-time aberration or adjustment, but if it’s not it doesn’t leave the Bank of Korea’s econometric models looking very good (which of them ever do?). And it’s the automakers’ collective results that should have monetary officials there rerunning their Monte Carlo economic simulations; they might want to recheck their assumptions on this whole “globally synchronized growth” thing.

By far the weakest export market for Korean vehicles was China. Hyundai was quick to blame that fact on South Korea’s deployment of US missile defenses and geopolitical tension that supposedly arose from it, but perhaps there are other factors that Economists, and their math, don’t want to consider about 2018.

As I wrote last week:

“They” keep calling this a boom, and it is often characterized in the mainstream as a big one – the biggest, some people are saying, since 2007 (which isn’t really a sufficient standard to begin with, but that’s for another day). Economists are constantly characterizing the economy as great, therefore the norm has become the economy is great, leaving our brains to believe it has to be because that’s what everyone else thinks.

And I keep asking where?

Right now it’s a good bet South Koreans outside the Bank of Korea, especially in the export/auto sector, are pondering that very question.