PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, hidden in right field. Artwork by David Parkins, the Ernest Thayer of the colored pencil.  


[Emil’s Summary] Baseball. Summer. The nation’s pastime. For well over a century the sport has nestled itself in the romantic nook of America’s soul. Its greatness captured in sentimental movies like The Natural and Field of Dreams. But light is balanced with darkness and for all its majesty the sport bears scandals and self-inflicted wounds: the 1919 Black Sox, a racial barrier. And of course, there’s that gray space between light and dark where tragi-comedy lies. The 1888 poem Casey at Bat. Yogi Berra’s relationship with paradox and irony. The Red Sox and the 20th century.

Like any phenomenon, the game has a full life that cannot be reduced to just one idea, one moment, one game. To do so would be the height of chutzpah and ego. So let your podcaster oblige. The greatest game ever played was on February 2, 1946. Known as the Baseball Bugs game it took place in New York City’s famed Polo Grounds where the Tea Totallers hosted the Gas-House Gorillas. The aged Totallers – one could even go so far as calling them elderly – were no match for the unshaven, cigar chawing players with shoulders as broad as the outfield placards. By the fourth inning the visitors were up: 96 to 0. So total was the farce that the home team turned to fans in the outfield for help. One such wasn’t even a man. Or woman. It was a rabbit. Bugs Bunny.

He struck out the first Gorilla with fastballs. Then – well – he changed baseball history with a single, off-speed pitch that struck out the side as three Gorillas swung three times each before the ball reached the plate. Players ever since have attempted to recreate the throw. And though pitches such as the Fossum Flip, Super Changeup, balloon ball, parachute, gravity curve and the Monty Brewster have come close, nothing has been seen like that magical day in 1946. Nothing until America’s central bank came up to bat on August 9, 2007.

For 13 years the Fed has been hacking at the same pitch of monetary disorder. And unlike the Gas House Gorillas, apparently there is no limit to the number of swings it can take at this slow-moving soap bubble. In this, the Frank Robinson episode of Making Sense, Jeff Snider recounts just the three most recent strikes: Gold, Dollar, and Inflation Expectations. As part of the discussion we’ll talk about Goldman Sachs’ claim that “real concerns are emerging” about the dollar’s reserve currency status and note that negative yielding US bonds are only a hare’s hair away. Also, the Euro, the yen and other important things like Magnum PI’s mustache and whether Jeff likes baseball.


00:05 | Mainstream commentary revolves around ‘too much’ liquidity provided by central banks has struck out
01:56 | Knuckleball. Strike 01! Gold. The currency-metal has been rising since… October 2018! Danger.
04:39 | Gyroball. Strike 02! Dollar. The broadly-weighted US dollar is still quite high. Disorder.
05:33 | Four-Seam. Strike 03! Inflation Expectations. Markets are not trading as if it’s present. Deflation.
08:01 | What are real yields, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, nominal rates and oil prices indicating?
11:02 | Can and will negative nominal yields arrive in the United States? Is it a hair-trigger away?
14:10 | Does Jeff like baseball?


Strike 1: Gold; Strike 2: Dollar; Strike 3: Inflation Expectations: https://bit.ly/39IlJG6
The Fastball Behind Strike 3: https://bit.ly/2XjV11B
Explainer – Fed funds futures market sees negative rates by next April: https://reut.rs/3foGtnO
30-Day Federal Funds Futures Quotes: https://bit.ly/3fimnLV
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7