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Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, exempt from Murphy’s Law. Artwork by David “the right stuff” Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is “Sleeves” by Cushy at Epidemic Sound.
25.1 Murphy’s Law of Feds
“The Right Stuff” is the story of “retail-level genius” daring to reach for the sky with humility. That is missing from the Federal Reserve’s new, grand monetary strategy which cloaks hubris in faux-humility.

Last week, current and former Federal Reserve officials offered a mea culpa, saying the timing of the 2015-18 rate hikes may have curbed a potentially quicker recovery from 2008. Apparently, seven to ten years is not enough time.

Well then, if time is the problem your podcaster will take a page out of Hugh Hendry’s book. Recently the early-21st century Scottish philosopher suggested the Fed would be taken seriously at its attempt of irresponsibility if it was headed by the funny, mixed martial artist, media-sensation Joe Rogan. Why not then filmmaker Christopher Nolan? He offers Rogan-style pyrotechnics, plus he knows his way around time. In Memento he reversed it, telling the story from back to front. With Inception he slowed it down – allowing multiple realities to exist simultaneously. Interstellar showed him capable of harnessing no less than the gravity well of the black hole Gargantua to ‘steal’ decades of time. And in his latest opus – TeneT – Nolan folds all of these ideas into the same movie. Not just the same movie, but the same frames! Entire sequences are shown with characters and objects sharing the same space but not the same eddies of entropy.

Hopefully the point survives the exaggeration. A true, fundamental overhaul is long overdue and recently the Federal Reserve did perform just such a review at the end of which it announced a new, grand strategy. In this, the 25th episode of Making Sense, while we wait for Rogan, Nolan or Deus-forbid anyone with authority, Snider offers his review of the new, grand strategy.



00:59 What is Murphy’s Law?
02:33 Who was flight surgeon, biophysicist and US Air Force Colonel John Paul Stapp, MD, PhD?
08:23 Enter Stage Right: Edward A. Murphy Jr., aerospace engineer, safety-critical system expert
11:03 The original Murphy’s Law acknowledged humility…
13:15 … but the newly announced Jackson Hole ‘Fed Law’ offers hubris CLOAKED in FAUX-humility.
15:52 Technocratic resistance to the evidence is directly proportional to the weight of it.



Murphy’s Law Is Fed’s Law, and Everything Is Wrong: https://bit.ly/3lTWbLM
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7