AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy

Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN

iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI

Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza

TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z

Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M

Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY

Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ

Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO

Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh

Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB

Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa

SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK

PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt

PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr



Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, a professional gentleman of leisure in no need of unemployment insurance. Artwork by David Parkins. 
26.3 The Fed Chalks up 2012-20 as “Transitory”
Why didn’t the economy recover by 2011-12? Transitory issues in Europe. Why didn’t the economy boom? Transitory weather. Why didn’t good inflation materialize? Transitory price wars. Sadly what’s not transitory is the seriousness with which central banks are taken.

How much is several? What is a few? If you were to put a numerical value on “probably” would it be more, or less, than “likely”? To your podcaster’s great consternation the linguistic gatekeepers of Middle English were rather disinterested. As a result we’re constantly late or early. ‘I thought we were to meet in a few hours, no?’ ‘No! It was several.’ ‘Oh, right.’ Women seem to revel in these nuances, arriving for a date with this podcaster when it pleases them and then claiming etymological immunity.

Which brings us to the word transitory. Admittedly there is SOME lexicographic nuance: momentary, transient, impermanent, temporal. However, the Federal Reserve – like the proverbial camel – stuck its thesaurus-nose into that nuance and CHARGED into the economic-tent of the past decade. Why did the 2009-10 Green Shoots recovery fail? Transitory European Sovereign Debt Crisis, gummed Bernanke. Why did the economy swoon in the first quarter of 2014? Transitory Polar Vortex, chomped Yellen. Why did inflation not accelerate despite ‘full-employment’? Transitory cellular data-plan price war, gnawed the FOMC. Why was Globally Synchronized Growth tripped up? Transitory political trade wars, chawed Powell.

So here we are, 10 transitory-filled years later. Now, unless there are glaciers listening to this podcast – and it needs all the ratings assistance it can get – it’s likely the audience is in unanimous agreement that the definition of “transitory” has been tortured to death. Indeed, the Federal Reserve agrees! And Transitory has been retired. Or cremated. Still, instinct informs your podcaster that much like our zombie economy, the transitory excuse is undead and will walk again!



00:05 Why does the Federal Reserve bring up the idea of “transitory” so often?
01:48 The Fed pursues inflation because it is supposed to be a consequence of a booming economy
03:24 How can it be said that inflation is not taking place when food prices are rising?
06:19 A review of the transitory issues that seem to come up every year since 2012
07:39 UK Prime Minister Harold McMillan was prepared for “events”. The Fed? Deus forbid them!
11:38 There is a rigid mindset in place – not the deflationary one of the people – but the stubborn donkeyness of monetary policy


A Deflationary Mindset That Isn’t In Our Minds: https://bit.ly/2FyXJdO
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7