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Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski (is that a ponytail?). Artwork by David Parkins.
30.2 QE2 Syndrome: Repeating a Failed Policy, but Bigger!
The SECOND round of stimulus checks is like the second round of quantitative easing. Instead of celebrating it as signaling something positive it should serve as a warning: if the first version was so good why do we need another round? Maybe the people in charge don’t know what they’re doing and are out of ideas?

[Emil’s Summary] As your podcaster put the finishing touches on Episode 30 word came down from up-on-high: ‘We need to do errata!’

Yes! Finally! This podcaster’s long-time goal would be a reality: to make economics erotic again. To tell the world that economists can stimulate. To inform that offshore bankers do it in the shadows. To broadcast that technical analysis has the best curves with those plunging chart necklines. The undulating data and heaving economic activity. Going long Treasuries. Wanting yield. Oh yeah, pile that yield on… yeah, high and deep… yeah, yeah…

Alas, when the new intro copy was handed in for proofreading this podcaster’s confusion was laid… bare. Errata? It’s all about copy-editing. And mistakes. The ancient latin word is plural for erratum, “a correction of a published text.” And indeed, in part three of this episode, the article under discussion was originally printed as, “Inflation Targeting: You Can Me Al”. Wha? It should have been “Inflation Targeting: You Can Call Me Al”.

And that’s not all. Closely related to errata is corrigenda, a plural latin word, “for a thing to be corrected, typically an error in a printed book.” Whereas an erratum is, as a general rule, issued for a production error, a corrigendum is a mistake by the author. And, in part three, Jeff Snider and I introduce Al Broaddus, the former Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond president. And when we segue to a quote about inflation targeting by Fed Governor Edward M. Gramlich, instead of attributing it to Gramlich, we continue to refer to Broaddus! We hope you forgive the erratum and the corrigendum and how we piled them high and deep in this episode… ooh, yeah.


00:05 The V-shaped recovery narrative is changing: now we are told to count on “stimulus”
05:13 Market hedging in the US Treasury, long-term bond market suggest not to count on stimulus
08:06 Recent, large short-positions drove yields higher – but not so much this time
09:50 The broader market position beyond leveraged speculators are betting on falling yields


COT Blue: OMG the 30s!!!!: https://bit.ly/2GKN0h0
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7