———WHERE———

AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy

Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN

iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI

Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza

TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z

Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M

Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY

Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO

Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ

Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh

Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB

Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa

PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt

SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK

PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr

 
———WHO———
 
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, confused and conflicted. Artwork by David Parkins. 
 
———WHY———
31.3 Bank of Japan as Monetary Policy Recce / Recon squad
The Bank of Japan has implemented radical, unorthodox policies for over two decades. The bank is seven years out in front of everyone. As scout, it has repeatedly warned the main central banking force (i.e. Britain, Europe and North America) not to follow in its path. But it’s been ignored.
 

[Emil’s Summary] American economist and New York Times columnist, Paul Krugman entered the economics profession to follow in the footsteps of Hari Seldon, a psychohistorian living on Trantor, approximately 10,000 years into the future. Seldon, psychohistory and Trantor are all from Isaac Assimov’s Foundation series published between 1951 to ’53. Seldon used, “the mathematics of human behaviour to save civilisation,” as Krugman put it. Admittedly, “economics is a pretty poor substitute”, muses Krugman, “[b]ut I tried,” he says. Many would say he’s done so very successfully having been awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to New Trade Theory and New Economic Geography.

Is he the best psychohistorian alive? Your podcaster does not think so – they hand out those Nobels like candy. No, the best is Hungarian-American George Friedman, the geopolitical strategist. As proof this podcaster offers his 2009 book titled: “The Next 100 Years”. Sure, Seldon forecasted the next 1,000 for the galaxy, but still, who on Earth is offering an outlook for the next century?

In Friedman’s book, Japan plays a very prominent role, second only to the United States. In macroeconomics and monetary policy Japan plays a central role too. It is the scout. Recon as the Americans call it; recee to the Commonwealth. The Bank of Japan is about seven years ahead of the main central banking force. And it’s waving back at everyone to, ‘Stay back! Don’t come this way!’ Is the warning lost in translation? Is it ignored?

Spanish essayist George Santayana famously noted, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” But your podcaster prefers Friedman’s quip that, “Studying history has little practical utility in averting past outcomes. We are doomed to repeat history whether we know it or not.”

 

———WHEN———

00:05 What was QQE and Abenomics? What lessons does it hold for Europe, America and Britain?
02:25 A worldwide publicity campaign for QQE the inflation target was missed 98.9% of the time.
06:08 The Fed, in January 2020, concluded inflation targeting in Japan was a big bubkis.
08:12 But the Fed believed they could! Their inflation targeting would work! Wowwowowowow!
10:25 QQE did worse in terms of economic growth than QE
11:34 A Bank of Japan study concluded that QQE did nothing for inflation or the economy
14:22 The Bank of Japan concluded that negative interest rates don’t work either

———WHAT———

You Need To Understand What’s Really Behind This New ‘V’, And Once Again Japan Is More Than Helpful: https://bit.ly/358weAz
Raising the Inflation Target: Lessons from Japan: https://bit.ly/31f85Yi
Why Did the BOJ Not Achieve the 2 Percent Inflation Target with a Time Horizon of About Two Years?: https://bit.ly/359eS6T
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7