———WHERE———

AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy

Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN

iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI

Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza

TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z

Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M

Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY

Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO

Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ

Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh

Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB

Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa

PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt

SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK

PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr

———WHO———

Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
Art: https://davidparkins.com/

Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, with a fly in his soup.  Artwork by David Parkins. 

———WHY———

34.2 Europe’s Monetary QE a Big Bubkis (Is MMT Next?)
Central bankers in Frankfurt and London are very active lately. They want, “to help the economy”, “to boost lending” and give banks “confidence” all so as to achieve their inflation targets. So far? Bubkis. Would MMT be different?

[Emil’s Summary] A social contract is the agreement between government, business, wealthy and ordinary households in how to apportion the costs and benefits of society.  The recently concluded (?) American election comes to mind, as a potential first step towards a new (green?) deal.  In this, the 34th episode of Making Sense, Jeff Snider identifies another, less obvious freshly fashioned contract: China and its recent 14th Five-Year plan.  But as Snider explains, question marks are not unique to democratic republics — communist ‘republics’ have them too.

The most successful, contemporary social contract your podcaster is aware of are the early-2000s Hartz Reforms in Germany. Listeners may be surprised to learn that before them today’s “economic engine of Europe” was the “sick man of Europe”.  The decade-long assimilation of East Germany had taken a heavy toll and unemployment levels would breach more than 10% — in 2004!  The new social contract ensured employment in return for low-wage growth that favored business. So, success doesn’t mean cost-free.  But we’ve always known that; remember the story of one of humanity’s original contracts?

As we learn in Exodus, Moses had to introduce The Commandments twice; the stone tablets were angrily shattered in the first attempt!  And by the time the second draft was presented the scene was rather tense.  Firstly, God was annoyed as all get-out to see Moses again — what, he doesn’t have anything else to do other than hew stone tablets?  Secondly, Moses was ill-tempered that he couldn’t leave the chosen people alone for a few days before they started chugging flagons like Frank the Tank.  Lastly, the people, like the teenager unable to thread the needle in a way that explained bongs and brassieres strewn across the yard to her parents, were anxiously awaiting judgement.  

When Moses returned for the second time the apprehensive throng gathered before him.  Moses announced, “I have good news and bad news.  The good news is, I got him down to ten.”  And a great cheer of relief issued forth.  “The bad news is… adultery stays.”

———WHEN———

00:05 The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are very busy with quantitative easing
02:11 Are European measures of inflation – HICP, Sovereign Bonds – indicating money printing?
04:30 However, US Treasury nominal yields are NOT signaling disinflation or deflation
06:35 The divergence between Treasuries and Bunds occured before, in 2018: Enter the Draghi
09:06 Inflation is a by-product of sustained economic growth as money supply increases
12:17 What does Jeff think of modern monetary theory?
14:50 Speculators are betting HEAVILY against US Treasuries and FOR reflation and/or inflation
16:49 Who is taking the other side of the speculators? Are they more credible?

———WHAT———

In 2020, Central Bankers Everywhere Are Being Exposed: https://bit.ly/3k8DQZm
COT B-und?: https://bit.ly/38iQaUC
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7