Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 35; Part 1: A Vaccine For COVID, And Bond Bull-itis?

———WHERE———

———WHO———

Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
Art: https://davidparkins.com/

Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, not like Tom Brady. Artwork by David Parkins.

———WHY———

35.1 Vaccine-phoria to kill Corona and… Bond Market?
US Treasury yields have risen on positive news, especially following the CoVo Vax news from Pfizer. Does it mean reflation has begun? Does it mean the 40-year bond bull market is dead? What do other economic accounts say?

———WHEN———

00:05 Will Phizer’s corona vaccine kill off the 40-year bond bull market?
01:32 US Treasury yields (medium- to long-term) are rising. Does that mean reflation has begun?
04:32 US Treasury real yields ARE NOT rising. Why the divergence between real and nominal?
07:09 German sovereign debt (bunds) have ALSO risen, as nominal Treasuries. Reflation? Headfake?
09:09 ZEW survey of German financiers showed EXTREME optimism – but not for the last two months
12:50 Artificial constructions – like 1.00% Yield – do not disaparate economic fundamentals
15:34 US consumer prices do not corroborate rising nominal Treasury yields

———WHAT———

Vaccine-phoria: https://bit.ly/3pnufSB
No Time For Pfizer, Europe Heads Back: https://bit.ly/38GnchV
Where Is It, Chairman Powell?: https://bit.ly/3eVWiDA
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7