Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, addicted to Jolt Cola pop. Artwork by David Parkins.
35.2 Plummeting Unemployment Rate a Mirage (again)
America’s unemployment rate plummeted from 14.7% to 6.9% in six short months! But it’s the same 2010-15 mirage. Even the Federal Reserve doesn’t believe it – that’s why they edited away the idea of “full employment” in August 2020.
00:05 The Establishment Survey / Payroll Report delivered good HEADLINE news about employment
01:54 The Household Survey produced even better HEADLINE news about the unemployment rate
04:02 The V-shaped recovery of the unemployment rate is a MIRAGE, a feint – just like before
07:11 FRB/US is a large-scale estimated general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy
08:16 FRB/US informed the Yellen Fed in 2015 that full employment had been reached – nope
10:23 The Fed lowered the “full employment” rate a DOZEN times between 2015-19 – bananas!
14:04 Does the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey agree with the good unemployment rate?
16:46 Jay Powell is asking for fiscal help – which makes sense – but implies QE isn’t a cure all
Good Payrolls Still Say Slowdown: https://bit.ly/32GaxaE
Slowdown In The Rebound; Stop Listening To Central Bankers: https://bit.ly/3psbbT1
QE Didn’t JOLT (again): https://bit.ly/2UswUfw
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7