41.1 Has the US Treasury Bond Rout Begun? (No.)
[Emil’s Summary] Mary Toft had delivered a litter of rabbits – that was the news that reached the court of King George I in 1726. Obstetrician John Howard arrived at Toft’s bedside in September where he was presented with several animal parts, ostensibly from the supernatural womb. In October, she delivered nine dead baby rabbits, prompting Howard to write a letter to England’s greatest doctors and scientists, as well as the King’s secretary. Nathaniel St. André, the King’s Swiss surgeon-anatomist, was sent to investigate. Toft greeted his arrival in November by delivering her 15th dead rabbit in his presence. St. André bought the story and “took some of the rabbit specimens back to London to show the King.”
Despite a chorus of doubt from other physicians and indisputable physical evidence from dissection of the rabbits, both Howard and St. André continued to support Toft’s story. It seems Howard, taken in by the scam at first, was doubling-down as the stakes were raised hoping his bluff would be saved by a real miracle. St. André on the other hand seems to have made his stand on, “‘maternal impression’, an idea popular at the time. The theory proposed that an emotional stimulus experienced by a pregnant woman” – Toft had dreamt of rabbits – “could influence the development of the foetus.”
Howard and St. André damaged the reputation of physicians. But there have been worse, Dr. Pepper for example – disgusting. Plenty of good docs of course, and not necessarily physicians: Dr. Manhattan, the smurfy-blue god; Dr. Disrespect, the gaming personality; “The Dock of the Bay”, by Otis Redding. So, where on the spectrum lies copper with its doctorate of philosophy in economics?
In part 2 of Episode 41, Jeff Snider weighs the calm supply-and-demand fundamentals, versus the Howard and St. André-like narrative that the good ship #Copper-Pop – fueled by Fed #QE-finity inflation – has achieved escape velocity, entered the #Tesla-osphere, and is on its way to the #Bitcoin-star! But first, the late-1990s Japanese government bond rout and its lessons for today.
But first, this from Eurodollar Enterprises! Friends, are you confused by the financial press? Are the pretty people on Bloomberg speaking in paradox? Are the esteemed pages of The Economist written in contradiction? Then The New Eurodollar Enterprises Dictionary of Echo-Nomics is for you! Yes, from AbeMoronics to ZIRP (Zero Interesting, Reasonable Policies) confidently leaf through your folio to define Yellenism, Powellution and Greenspam. “Money”, a noun, is defined as “a blessing that is of no advantage to us excepting when we part with it.” What is a synonym for “Wealth”? Impunity. What is the compound word for making economics erotic? “Bernanke-panky”. The New Eurodollar Enterprises Dictionary of Echo-Nomics! New! From Eurodollar Enterprises.
The benchmark US Treasury 10-year bond has seen its yield BLAST through 1.00% in the young year, from 0.91% on January 4 to 1.11% on January 8. Will an inflationary conflagration transform Treasuries into smoking husks of charcoal? Jeff Snider tells us what a REAL bond rout looked like.
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, says “fable” means “moral”. Artwork by the Asimov of copper robots, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is “Occurrence” by Martin Gauffin at Epidemic Sound.
01:37 What does it mean when important financial personalities call for a ‘a bond rout’?
04:23 What happened in the mid- to late-1990s in Japan and the government bond market?
10:24 When the Bank of Japan announced a SHOCKING zero interest rate policy the bond rout ended!
12:18 Lender business decision: lend to the government (safe), not the private economy (unsafe)
14:30 What is the moral of the Eurodollar Fable?
17:08 Might government-guaranteed loan schemes be a paradigm shift?
They’ve Gone Too Far (or have they?): https://bit.ly/2LCqA3y
Ep. 32, Pt. 2 Milton Friedman’s Plucking Model: https://youtu.be/66W9oU0iUsw
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7