49.3 Week 48 of ‘Record’ Jobless Claims
Learn how to reconcile a positive surge in retail sales with a nightmare string of ‘record’ jobless claims and lousy sentiment reported by the University of Michigan consumer survey. Perhaps pent up demand? Maybe. An unusual, poorly explained seasonal adjustment boost? Maybe too.
But first, this from Eurodollar Enterprises! The motion picture event of the summer: (Con)Tango & Cash. When an international smuggling ring uses the local commodity exchange to send gold into backwardation, two macroeconomists take matters into their own hands… and onto the spot market.
Starring Travis ‘the President’ Kimmel as Contango, “You can take delivery of lead — punk.”
And Steven ‘the Monarch’ Van Metre as Cash, “You know how I promised to let you close out that trade?”
“Yeah man, you did Cash! You did promise!”
With Grant Williams as the polite British guy, “Well chaps, you put the mockers on, didn’t you?”
This motion picture will never be rated. Available only on-demand at Real Vision.
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski. Art by the King of the North, David Parkins.
00:05 US jobless claims, for 48 consecutive weeks, have remained at pre-2020 record levels
02:51 US consumers “surprised” economists by viewing the outlook for the economy as lousy
03:58 A government ‘stimulus’ check is not enough for consumers to base their behavior on
06:40 US retail sales for the month of January were fantastic!
07:56 Were US retail sales in January fantastic? An unusual, large seasonal adjustment. Hmm?
Forty-Seven Explains Much: https://bit.ly/3azo1te
Uncle Sam Was Back Having Consumers’ Backs: https://bit.ly/3dsHLAL
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7