50.0 Why Economists Kept Getting the Policies Wrong
Jeff Snider reacts to two recent articles: “Bond yields are not good predictors of inflation” (Peterson Institute for International Economics) and “Why economists kept getting the policies wrong” (Financial Times).
But first, this from Eurodollar Enterprises! The motion picture event of the summer: (Con)Tango & Cash. When an international smuggling ring uses the local commodity exchange to send gold into backwardation, two macroeconomists take matters into their own hands… and onto the spot market.
Starring Travis ‘the President’ Kimmel as Contango, “You can take delivery of lead — punk.”
And Steven ‘the Monarch’ Van Metre as Cash, “You know how I promised to let you close out that trade?”
“Yeah man, you did Cash! You did promise!”
With Grant Williams as the polite British guy, “Well chaps, you put the mockers on, didn’t you?”
This motion picture will never be rated. Available only on-demand at Real Vision.
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski. Art by the King of the North, David Parkins.
01:07 Two economists write that bond yields are not good predictors of inflation
03:25 Bond yields have failed to predict inflation for 70 years in the US; three other countries
05:36 Why economists kept getting the policies wrong
08:06 Was monetarism was derailed by poor philosophy? Or because measures of money failed?
11:48 Monetarism ditched, so first came currency exchange targeting then inflation targeting.
13:31 Positive Economics, econometrics promised wonderful, impossible things
16:16 Central Bankers use mathematics as a shield against criticism
18:47 We are back where we started, time to dust off Keynes General Theory.
Teenagers baffled by rotary phone: https://youtu.be/oHNEzndgiFI
Bond yields are not good predictors of inflation: https://bit.ly/2Zz7dwd
Why economists kept getting the policies wrong: https://on.ft.com/2ZwAgAw
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7