63.2 Growing Economy? Treasury Bills Don’t Believe It!

———Part 2 Summary———
Economic recovery? Then why aren’t US Treasury Securities being OBLITERATED by the combined power of vaccines, fiscal stimulus and monetary easing? Maybe because stimulus is really ‘stimulus’ and easing is ‘easing’. Indeed, US Treasury Bills are being bid and signaling angst.

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL
Art: https://davidparkins.com/

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———Ep 63.2 Topics———

00:05 The headlines are all positive in the USA: vaccines, stimulus, monetary easing, reopening
02:23 The US Treasury Dept. is sending money from its Treasury General Account into the economy
03:21 If economic recovery was REALLY ahead we would be observing a BOND ROUT (surging yields)
06:58 The Effective Federal Funds rate and Interest On Excess Reserves rates
10:55 Longer-term Notes and Bonds are reflating – somewhat. But shorter-term Bills are not.
12:27 Which bond market is leading the other: Short-term and concern or Long-term and reflation?
14:34 Several non-US markets, currencies and commodities are like Bills, somewhat hesitant.

———Ep 63.2 References———

Rechecking On Bill And His Newfound Followers: https://bit.ly/39Ysh4Y
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

———Who———

Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins.