93.1 What Gold Prices tell us about the Economy

———Ep 93.1 Summary———
Gold Slams! Rapid, huge sales in early morning hours are warnings about a malfunction deep within the plumbing of global capital flows. They’re also multi-week, precipitous price declines. We review the last few months of gold price to triangulate if the pipes are rattling warnings.

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
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Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL
Art: https://davidparkins.com/

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———Ep 93.1 Topics———

00:33 Show introduction: gold, what does it tell us about the state of global shadow money?
00:33 Show (potential) Sponsor: Jim Cramer’s 2007 rant warning of crisis as the Fed slept.
04:00 Gold belongs in a broad panel of measures that gauge the health of the monetary order.
07:14 Gold slams can be both fast, early morning affairs as well as long, weekly selling.
08:44 Defining what it means that the Fed custodies US Treasuries for official foreigners.
10:56 Long gold slams took place in 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2020 during global dollar squeezes.
13:59 The Fed is staffed with academics who focus on mathematics of models, not markets.
17:09 A review of the historic relationship between gold and US Treasury 10-year bond yields.
19:42 A review of a recent break in correlation between US Treasuries and gold.
22:20 A review of the relationship between yields, gold and the Fed’s Reverse Repo Program.
23:48 Fed custody of US Treasuries by official foreigners peaked recently in Mid-March. Shock!

———Ep 93.1 References———

Golden Collateral Checking: https://bit.ly/3j7HKmS
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7


Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is “MUNEY” by Beiba from Epidemic Sound.