95.1 Why Do High CPI Readings NOT Mean Inflation? 

———Ep 95.1 Summary———
Inflation is a broad, sustained monetary phenomenon. Price deviations in a narrow set of economic sectors, though they last months, are just that: price deviations. Today’s high CPI-readings will in all likelihood be subsumed by the global monetary disorder, like in 2008 and 2011.

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———Ep 95.1 Topics———

00:00 Show Intro: Inflation is at 5% in 2021, but it was there in 2008 too. Is today different?
01:33 In the summer of 2008 the Federal Reserve was concerned about inflation.
04:37 US Treasury Bills disagreed with the Fed and commodities about the likelihood of inflation
08:30 US T-Bills were below the Federal Funds Target from March 2008 – a constant warning.
09:40 In 2008 Bill Dudley was aware of collateral demand but didn’t think it was concerning.
15:30 The 2008 Summer of Inflation was subsumed by the deterioration in monetary conditions.
16:35 In 2011 the CEO of US Walmart noted that inflation was going to be serious.
18:31 In 2011 US Treasury Bills disagreed with the CEO of US Walmart about inflation.
21:37 In 2011 Brian Sack was aware of collateral demand but thought it was Treasury related.
27:00 In 2021 we see the Treasury Dept. constricting Bill supply and UST Bills very low.
29:42 In 2014 the CEO of US Walmart was fired, but not before he warned about US consumers.

———Ep 95.1 References———

There Is So Much, Too Much, Just Enough the Same: https://bit.ly/37Iluus
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7


Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is “Dress Code: Black” by oomiee from Epidemic Sound.