95.1 Why Do High CPI Readings NOT Mean Inflation?
———Ep 95.1 Summary———
Inflation is a broad, sustained monetary phenomenon. Price deviations in a narrow set of economic sectors, though they last months, are just that: price deviations. Today’s high CPI-readings will in all likelihood be subsumed by the global monetary disorder, like in 2008 and 2011.
———Ep 95.1 Topics———
00:00 Show Intro: Inflation is at 5% in 2021, but it was there in 2008 too. Is today different?
01:33 In the summer of 2008 the Federal Reserve was concerned about inflation.
04:37 US Treasury Bills disagreed with the Fed and commodities about the likelihood of inflation
08:30 US T-Bills were below the Federal Funds Target from March 2008 – a constant warning.
09:40 In 2008 Bill Dudley was aware of collateral demand but didn’t think it was concerning.
15:30 The 2008 Summer of Inflation was subsumed by the deterioration in monetary conditions.
16:35 In 2011 the CEO of US Walmart noted that inflation was going to be serious.
18:31 In 2011 US Treasury Bills disagreed with the CEO of US Walmart about inflation.
21:37 In 2011 Brian Sack was aware of collateral demand but thought it was Treasury related.
27:00 In 2021 we see the Treasury Dept. constricting Bill supply and UST Bills very low.
29:42 In 2014 the CEO of US Walmart was fired, but not before he warned about US consumers.
———Ep 95.1 References———
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is “Dress Code: Black” by oomiee from Epidemic Sound.