98.1 America’s Labor Shortage (doesn’t exist?)
———Ep 98.1 Summary———
A lousy labor market report for August is being blamed on a “labor shortage”. Also, ‘lazy Americans’ and ‘the delta’. But the real problem is that businesses will not pay a market-clearing wage to hire the workers they need. Why not? Because the economy is lousy.
———Ep 98.1 Topics———
00:00 Intro: What condition is US employment and the labor force?
02:25 If the economy is booming / steady / reflating then why is the labor market cooling?
03:53 A market-clearing wage would clear up any labor shortage – so why won’t businesses pay?
08:04 ISM’s Manufacturing Employment Index has been falling since March 2021; it’s below 50.
12:01 The political establishment blames the US worker for laziness, greed, stupidity.
14:33 ADP payrolls, inflation, personal income peak and bottom to the beat of stimulus checks.
18:00 US consumption has not recovered to its pre-2018 trend; it has gone sideways recently.
20:11 NonFarm Payrolls for August were well below expectations and the lowest in 7 months.
21:49 ISM Services Employment fell a tad relative to July for August, but still expanding.
23:06 Outro: the lousy labor market data for August is not a recent development.
———Ep 98.1 References———
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by the pen of the people, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is “UntrainedEye” by _91nova from Epidemic Sound.