98.1 America’s Labor Shortage (doesn’t exist?) 

———Ep 98.1 Summary———
A lousy labor market report for August is being blamed on a “labor shortage”. Also, ‘lazy Americans’ and ‘the delta’. But the real problem is that businesses will not pay a market-clearing wage to hire the workers they need. Why not? Because the economy is lousy.

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
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Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL
Art: https://davidparkins.com/

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———Ep 98.1 Topics———

00:00 Intro: What condition is US employment and the labor force?
02:25 If the economy is booming / steady / reflating then why is the labor market cooling?
03:53 A market-clearing wage would clear up any labor shortage – so why won’t businesses pay?
08:04 ISM’s Manufacturing Employment Index has been falling since March 2021; it’s below 50.
12:01 The political establishment blames the US worker for laziness, greed, stupidity.
14:33 ADP payrolls, inflation, personal income peak and bottom to the beat of stimulus checks.
18:00 US consumption has not recovered to its pre-2018 trend; it has gone sideways recently.
20:11 NonFarm Payrolls for August were well below expectations and the lowest in 7 months.
21:49 ISM Services Employment fell a tad relative to July for August, but still expanding.
23:06 Outro: the lousy labor market data for August is not a recent development.

———Ep 98.1 References———

Yes And No Taper To Labor (and inflation): https://bit.ly/38E77YJ
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7


Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by the pen of the people, David Parkins.  Podcast intro/outro is “UntrainedEye” by _91nova from Epidemic Sound.