108.3 The Inventory Cycle is Coming!! (or is it?)
———Ep 108.3 Summary———
Will 2022-demand be strong enough to absorb 2021-supply surges? A review of the US inventory cycle and how global covid-related restrictions have convinced retailers, wholesalers and producers to surge goods orders. If demand isn’t there, they will have over-ordered.
———Ep 108.3 Topics———
00:00 Show Intro: The US inventory cycle, what position is the USA in as 2021 nears its end.
00:26 What is the virtuous circle, business cycle, inventory cycle and vicious cycle?
01:45 The inventory cycle flows from retailers to wholesalers to producers and in reverse.
04:38 Uncertain supply, due to Covid-related shocks, can result in MASSIVE order requests.
07:37 What happens when the Covid-related logistics resolve and orders POUR into the economy?
09:31 What do recent PMI manufacturing readings suggest may happen in 2022?
11:43 What do recent PMI composite readings (including services) suggest may happen in 2022?
14:38 Show Outro: Fed projects confidence but the underlying reality may need more than hopium.
———Ep 108.3 References———
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins, grand marshal of editorial cartoons. Podcast intro/outro is “Digital Breath” by ELFL from Epidemic Sound.