108.3 The Inventory Cycle is Coming!! (or is it?) 

———Ep 108.3 Summary———
Will 2022-demand be strong enough to absorb 2021-supply surges? A review of the US inventory cycle and how global covid-related restrictions have convinced retailers, wholesalers and producers to surge goods orders. If demand isn’t there, they will have over-ordered.

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
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Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL
Art: https://davidparkins.com/

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———Ep 108.3 Topics———

00:00 Show Intro: The US inventory cycle, what position is the USA in as 2021 nears its end.
00:26 What is the virtuous circle, business cycle, inventory cycle and vicious cycle?
01:45 The inventory cycle flows from retailers to wholesalers to producers and in reverse.
04:38 Uncertain supply, due to Covid-related shocks, can result in MASSIVE order requests.
07:37 What happens when the Covid-related logistics resolve and orders POUR into the economy?
09:31 What do recent PMI manufacturing readings suggest may happen in 2022?
11:43 What do recent PMI composite readings (including services) suggest may happen in 2022?
14:38 Show Outro: Fed projects confidence but the underlying reality may need more than hopium.

———Ep 108.3 References———

All Eyes On Inventory: https://bit.ly/2Wg6ty8
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7


Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins, grand marshal of editorial cartoons. Podcast intro/outro is “Digital Breath” by ELFL from Epidemic Sound.