122.1 US Dollar Outgains All! (…except for one??)
———Ep 122.1 Summary———
The US dollar is rising in value against a collection of currencies (except one). It’s disconfirming evidence of sustainable economic recovery; it implies strained USD-funding. And there’s still that one key, stable currency – unusually stable; suspiciously stable.
Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, blog posts, speeches and excerpts from economics, geopolitics and more. Interesting people write interesting things, why not listen and hear what they have to say? You could do worse things with your time (i.e. Bloomberg, CNBC, et cetera). Recent readings include thoughts from George Friedman, Lyn Alden, Daniel Oliver, Michael Pettis, the Bank for International Settlements and yes, even Karl Marx.
———Ep 122.1 Topics———
00:00 INTRO: An elementary measure of shadow money is the value of the US dollar; it is rising.
00:55 In 2018, the USD trajectory inflected: down, to pause and then up; bad things followed.
03:18 In 2018, analysts expected the USD to lose value since the global economy was ‘strong’.
08:24 In June 2018 the head of India’s Reserve Bank was complaining dollars were missing.
11:38 In June 2018 we observed foreigners selling USD securities, according to TIC data.
15:00 In 2021 the USD trajectory inflected, from down to pause and then up; bad things next?
17:19 There are many flavors / measures of the USD – each of them are showing a rising USD.
19:21 One currency hasn’t weakened against the USD, the Chinese renminbi / yuan / CNY / CNH.
22:17 OUTRO: USD rise alerts us to difficulties in global dollar/money funding availability.
———Ep 122.1 References———
More Dollar Bull: https://bit.ly/3iGt2UJ
(Urjit Patel) Emerging markets face a dollar double whammy: https://on.ft.com/3mr6F6E
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins, myth spinner. Podcast intro/outro is “Knight’s Templar” by Adriel Fair found at Epidemic Sound.