150.3 Warning Indicator Blinks Red on PBOC Balance Sheet 


———Ep 150.3 Summary———
What kind of foreign assets do you own PBOC? Well, we are adding a lot of “other” right now. “Other”? Yes, “other”. What is that? Don’t worry about it. What do you mean, ‘Don’t worry about it.’? Just know that we’re adding it, whatever it is – it’s good.

———Sponsor———
Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, blog posts, speeches and excerpts from economics, geopolitics and more. Interesting people write interesting things, why not listen and hear what they have to say? You could do worse things with your time (i.e. Bloomberg, CNBC, et cetera). Recent readings include thoughts from George Friedman, Lyn Alden, Daniel Oliver, Michael Pettis, the Bank for International Settlements and yes, even Karl Marx.

———See It———

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Art: https://davidparkins.com/

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———Ep 150.3 Topics———

00:00 Intro: A review of the People’s Bank of China’s balance sheet reveals a warning indicator
01:10 The PBOC balance sheet is an indicator of global dollar conditions.
02:08 The PBOC’s holding of foreign assets has been dead straight, unchanged for several years.
03:22 In 2021 the PBOC began to report an increase in foreign assets – great news! Or is it?
05:17 The PBOC did not announce it was accumulating gold for years until a monetary crisis hit.
06:55 “Foreign Assets: Other” didn’t seem to exist until it suddenly showed up in August 2007.
14:30 The PBOC reacts to Eurodollar #2 – the European Sovereign Debt Crisis.
18:42 The PBOC reacts to Eurodollar #3 – the Rising Dollar and China’s Foreign Reserves Crisis.
21:49 The PBOC reacts to Eurodollar #4 – Deglobalization.
23:55 What must the PBOC reacting to in 2021 because “Foreign Assets: Other” is rising?
26:22 The troubling turn in the PBOC’s balance sheet is corroborated by the US TIC report.
28:37 Outro: Deflationary, disinflationary and dollar shortage signals proliferate.

———Ep 150.3 References———

China’s Central Bank Condition Has Consistently Told You Everything About Global (not) Inflation: https://bit.ly/2ZWb35Q
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

———Who———

Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins, quickest draw in the Wild West. Podcast intro/outro is “Electro Animal” by Oh the City found at Epidemic Sound.