168.1 Market says Powell’s Second Term Already a Failure
———Ep 168.1 Summary———
Jay Powell has been nominated by President Biden to serve another term as the Federal Reserve chair. Though his nomination has not even been heard by the US Congress, another group of people has already passed judgement on the second term: the bond market (and they say it’ll be a failure!).
———Ep 168.1 Topics———
00:00 INTRO: Powell was renominated for another term, what does the bond market think of this?
00:49 Why was Jay Powell renominated instead of Lael Brainard. Or anyone else for that matter?
02:10 Was Jay Powell renominated because stocks are up? And thus, they must be kept up?
04:25 Was Ben Bernanke renominated because stocks were up? And thus, they must be kept up?
07:24 What does the yield curve think of Jay Powell’s renomination?
08:50 What shape was the 2013 Taper (tantrum?) Celebration yield curve in?
11:25 What shape was the 2018 Global Synchronized Growth yield curve in?
13:27 What shape was the 2021 Vaccine & Stimmy Checks yield curve in?
16:54 The US Treasury yield curve has flattened out in the 5yr-to-10yr space. Why?
17:53 OUTRO: Our best, most trustworthy economic indicator says the economy
———Ep 168.1 References———
#continuity The Least Useful Person: https://bit.ly/3r4k8VN
Sorry Jay, Curve(s) #continuity Is Not A Good Thing: https://bit.ly/3DP5XYn
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
Macropiece Theater with Emil Kalinowski (a/k/a Alistair Cooke, a/k/a Alistair Cookie) reading the latest essays, blog posts, speeches and excerpts from economics, geopolitics and more. Interesting people write interesting things, why not listen and hear what they have to say? You could do worse things with your time (i.e. Bloomberg, CNBC, et cetera). Recent readings include thoughts from: Adam Smith, Arthur Schopenhauer, Bank for International Settlements, George Friedman, J.P. Koning, Jean-Paul Sartre, Karl Marx, Liberty Street Economics, Lyn Alden, Maroon Macro, Matt Stoeller, Michael Pettis, Myrmikan, Perry Mehrling, Robert Breedlove, Rohan Grey, Velina Tchakarova and yes, even Jeff Snider.
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Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments. Illustrations by David Parkins, myth maker. Audio and video editor, The Terence. Logo design by pixelist Lisa Jiang. Master of ceremonies, Emil Kalinowski. Podcast intro/outro is “Turquoise Waves” by Sarah, the Illstrumentalist found at Epidemic Sound.
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