177.1 Eurodollar Warning Confirmed(?) by USA GER JPN & CHN
———Ep 177.1 Summary———
The Eurodollar futures curve inverted on December 1st – what’s happened since? Also, does the American, German and Japanese sovereign bond market corroborate the Eurodollar futures warning? Lastly, does China’s lowering of its bank Required Reserve Ratio buttress the E$ warning too?
———Ep 177.1 Topics———
00:00 INTRO: Updating the Eurodollar futures curve inversion; also global bond market yields.
00:41 The 2021 Eurodollar futures inversion had an active first few days.
01:40 A tiny negative in the Eurodollar futures curve is actually a big deal, even if tiny.
05:05 Did the 2018 Eurodollar futures curve predict the 2020 pandemic when it inverted?
08:06 Is the 2021 Eurodollar futures curve warning that something bad will happen in 2025?
10:50 The US Treasury 10-year yield curve is flattening, corroborating the E$ futures curve.
13:29 The German bunds and Japanese government bonds also corroborate the E$ futures curve.
15:52 China reduced its bank Required Reserve Ratio; a warning of global dollar illiquidity.
18:06 OUTRO: Keep an eye on the Eurodollar futures curve, it’s important even if nothing changes.
———Ep 177.1 References———
Euro$ Futures: There Be Landmines: https://bit.ly/3y8PdsU
An Inversion That Will Likely End the Inflation Narrative: https://bit.ly/335vQ8G
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin
Real Clear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
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Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments. Illustrations by David Parkins, myth maker. Audio and video editor, The Terence. Logo design by pixelist Lisa Jiang. Master of ceremonies, Emil Kalinowski. Musical intro/outro is “Sleds” by Cushy found at Epidemic Sound.
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