“Patience is the ability to idle your motor when you feel like stripping your gears.” Barbara Johnson, Author After a swift decline in January, a flat February, a strong turnaround in March and a pretty flat April, investor patience is starting to wear thin. It seems ever more difficult to discern a direction for the markets and the economy. [...]
After a punishing January and a mediocre February, the first quarter of 2016 ended on a positive note. With the exception of some international markets, March was a very nice rebound month across the board. The rising tide of optimism (or maybe just less pessimism) impacted domestic equity and fixed income markets and by quarter-end the Standard & Poor’s 500 [...]
This past Wednesday, March 9th, marked the seven-year anniversary of the current U.S. bull market. The recent correction notwithstanding, this is quite an accomplishment considering that historically, the average bull run is about 59 months. Since March of 2009, the major indices have registered some hefty gains through this period, the NASDAQ up 266%, the Dow Jones industrials up 159% [...]
“To him who is in fear, everything rustles.” - Sophocles Smart philosopher, Sophocles and although he wasn’t referring to investors, a better description for today’s market participants is hard to find. Nervousness and plain old fear seem to have relegated the financial markets to short-term, news driven schizophrenic behavior. It is visible in the bond markets, commodity markets and, of [...]
The jolly old elf was a disappointing no-show this year - no Santa rally for stocks. And the New Year isn’t off to a very happy start either unless you happen to be holding one of those winning Powerball tickets. In fact, 2015 as a whole was pretty unsatisfying – challenging for investors of all kinds; bonds, stocks, and commodities [...]
So far there has been neither (reindeer) hide nor (snowy white) hair of Santa this December. The Grinch, on the other hand, has hardly been scarce and month-to-date, through the 11th, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrials have contracted -3.19% and -2.43%, respectively. Bonds have not been a particularly great place to be either, the Barclays U.S. Aggregate [...]
For a while now, it has been the subject of some debate around the office whether the dearth of earnings and sales growth that we saw in the second quarter and are seeing in the third quarter is the beginning of the end. In other words, are the decline in earnings and revenues a forewarning of recession? Or, is it [...]
It has been a point of frustration for many of us in the financial industry that corporate tax reform has taken a back seat to “Fed watching” and political sparring. Mediocre U.S. economic growth during this expansion has been blamed on many different factors, the Fed’s policies, demographics, geopolitical issues, post-traumatic stress from the financial crisis, you name it. It [...]
Let's start this week's missive off with a disclosure of sorts - I am not Joe Calhoun. Unlike Joe, I have managed to hold on to my hair over the years although the last week has been challenging in that regard. Joe and his lovely wife, Fay, took an extended weekend off and headed towards Key West (a trip planned [...]
“Frog in a Well” (or “Two Steps Forward One Step Back…”) As the second quarter earnings season winds down, we appear to stand at a crossroads with investors and economic pundits alike, speculating on the real state of the global economy. Investor sentiment figures released by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) for the next six months (week ending [...]
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