Economic Reports Scorecard The reported economic data of the last few weeks (it's been 3 weeks since my last update so I guess technically this isn't the Bi-Weekly Review) provides about as much direction and insight as the polls conducted prior to the election. To my eye, the trend here is trendless with a decidedly mixed set of data, each [...]
So how does it end? It’s the only question that matters, more so perhaps than asking when this “end” might occur. We see the “dollar” tanking currencies again, though mostly the majors this time, but currencies have tanked for as long as they have floated; and a great many before that time, too. Is there something different now that wasn’t [...]
After being pummeled by a concurrent stock and real estate crash, Japanese officials by late 1992 felt that enough was enough. The Nikkei 225 stock index that was nearly 40,000 toward the end of 1989 had crashed to below 15,000 by August 1992. From that point, however, Japanese stocks had started rising again. Through the summer of 1992, things looked [...]
The Treasury Department’s Treasury International Custody (TIC) estimates for September were released, and though I wish they were timelier they do typically confirm what we suspect about the months at each update. There were negatives all over this latest month, including private flows, which would fit the overall narrative where Chinese money markets were all over the place and repo [...]
Consumer prices accelerated again in October 2016, with the overall CPI calculating a 1.64% inflation rate. That is up from 1.46% in September, and the highest since October 2014. The reason is energy prices. For the first time in over two years, the energy component of the CPI was positive year-over-year. Having been as low as -20% in early 2015, [...]
In another case of government meeting reality, Saudi Arabia sacked its long-serving Finance Minister at the end of October. In a move reminiscent of the recent shakeup in Beijing’s Finance Ministry, with longstanding technocrat Lou Jiwei being ousted, Saudi Arabia has had to face up to more than just oil prices. Ibrahim al-Assaf had been in that position since 1996, [...]
As the Chinese yuan continues to sink lower in what looks to be an increasingly uncontrolled fashion, the desperate linking of that to US interest rates becomes even more absurd. As shown yesterday, global currencies have run into great trouble with US rates moving higher and lower; in fact more so with lower US rates than higher. The connection between [...]
Industrial production continued its slow, shallow contraction, unusual in any economic climate but perhaps more compelling here in describing the different direction markets are taking. Clearly, as discussed several times before, certain parts of certain markets are betting that different is going to be effective where the same old was clearly not. The actual economy, however, has yet to show [...]
Clichés are clichés for a reason, largely because their meaning no longer requires precision in order to communicate information. Because of that, their use is usually limited to cultural exchanges, being largely shunned in areas when technical proficiency requires a high level of exactitude. Economics and finance in more recent years, really since August 2007, seemed to have shifted more [...]
There were a great many ridiculous things we witnessed last year, but among them was the unshakable desire for the media and economists to label consumers and consumer spending as “strong” regardless of any other considerations. In most cases, whatever month-over-month change would seem positive, but it was so only in that very narrow view. Misunderstanding natural variation, they all [...]
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