The world seemed to have everything going for it, for once, everything coming up favorable for the first time seemingly in forever. There were vaccines, financial government interventions worldwide just recklessly chucking money at anyone with a pulse, an end to the pandemic even normalcy right in front of us. What could possibly have messed this up?It was around 11:15 [...]
Nobody, and I mean nobody, does premature celebrations like central bankers. When it comes to their non-money monetary policies and the inflation they seek to create from them, time and again officials in every jurisdiction spike the ball at least 30 yards before they reach the endzone. Whenever one or another consumer price measure ticks up, or accelerates dramatically as [...]
Balance sheet capacity as an intangible (and deeply misunderstood) monetary property is the biggest motivating factor behind changes in or to the offshore, shadow ledger-money reserve system. The eurodollar. Since it is a distributed ledger shared amongst, and kept by, the big-bank global banking cabal, its members’ ability to expand their own individual balance sheets contributes to the overall increase [...]
Most Americans understandably have tunnel vision when it comes to the American CPI and what it might portend for their personal circumstances. Gasoline prices and those for anyone trying to buy a car or now rent some kind of shelter, the threat is immediate. From this palpable sense, the word “transitory” today might just seem offensive.Yet, it may prove itself [...]
When it gets cold outside and the pandemic throws another variant spread into the mix, Americans have proved they will come together…in virtual fashion to go shopping for fashions and more on Amazon. For the second straight post-Christmas winter, retail sales recorded by nonstore retailers ended up being far, far better than expected. According to the Census Bureau’s latest report [...]
The FOMC is going to hike rates maybe even aggressively. There’s not much dispute on this assumption. Why the Committee might be doing so, that’s a whole detailed debate. The Treasury yield curve is building toward inversion while the crucial (and leading) Euro$ futures curve is already substantially upside down.Both are increasingly confident market bets against the FOMC’s position(s).Jay Powell [...]
I’ve said since it first showed up on December 1 to keep the eurodollar futures curve in the back of your mind. It wasn’t likely to change all that much in its first stage of minor inversion. The mere fact it had gone upside down at all regardless of where on the curve or by how much was already a [...]
NOTE: This post was written on Thursday, February 10. This isn’t typical. Both the speed at which this has come about and the depth to which the it has now sunk, the yield curve’s wild flattening is simply breathtaking. Today’s accelerating CPI print accelerated the distortions all over the Treasury market such that it has taken a shape along key [...]
As a follow-up to the post-October correlation in Treasuries, it’s worth reiterating how much more compelling the flattening curve has been given the full range of circumstances otherwise all lined up directly opposed to it. There has been: 1. Accelerating CPI.2. Higher oil prices.3. Looming rate hikes.4. Outwardly favorable labor data turbocharging expectations for even more aggressive rate hikes (and [...]
All eyes on Europe today where ECB Governor Christine Lagarde tried very hard to avoid committing to either rate hikes or the timing of them. Always conditional, she says. However, everyone knows different. With her counterparts at the Federal Reserve already committed to panicking over CPI rates, the latest HICP inflation numbers in Europe are not going to take any [...]
Stay In Touch