The federal government shut down last week so we didn't get the monthly employment report last Friday and I think that may be the best news investors have gotten all year. I expect a lot of government generated economic reports to be missed during the shutdown, which I think could drag on a lot longer than previous versions. With the [...]
Over the last two years, the evolution of the US economy has been driven by a return to “normal”. The distortions of the response to COVID had a profound impact on the economy that I believe will persist for many years. The change in cash levels at the household level were large and have proved more persistent than most expected. [...]
Manufacturing regionally, nationally and globally continues to be in contraction. In line with that theme, ISM reported 47.4% this morning, the 14th straight month of contraction. Manufacturing is contracting at slower rates and export orders continue to show improvement. To date this has played out more like a slowly recovering covid hangover. The fear is weak demand signaling recession, but [...]
The ISM PMI came in unchanged in November at 46.7, the 13th consecutive month this series has indicated contraction in manufacturing. On a positive note, though current production dropped, new orders rose. Other data points of note: Export orders dropped (6 of 18 industries reporting growth) Backlogs dropped (no industry reported growth in backlogs) Prices are no longer going down [...]
New orders up, backlogs down, employment down, inflation up. Index at 50, kiss your mother. As with the regional surveys, the takeaway here as the Chief Economist of S&P Global says, "conditions stabilize." There is not a good gauge on direction here. S&P Global PMI ISM Manufacturing came in at 46.7, again below 48.7 the baseline for contraction/expansion. ISM Manufacturing [...]
Similar to other regional surveys, down .1 from September and near the average for the year. Soft conditions. We need directional confirmation. Chicago Business Barometer Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the information herein constitutes [...]
Just the other day, President Biden took to the pages of the Wall Street Journal to reassure Americans the government is doing something about the greatest economic challenge they face. Biden says this is inflation when that’s neither the actual affliction nor our greatest threat. On the contrary, recession probabilities have sharply risen as the real economy slows down given [...]
There is no “decoupling”, at least there hasn’t been yet. Why would this time end up any different? The history of the term has itself changed over time, but by doing so has offered further proof this is a fact of global economic life in the post-August 2007 eurodollar era. It always goes like this: globally synchronized reflation (not growth); [...]
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