The Treasury International Capital (TIC) update for April showed a very large net decline in foreign (registered) holdings of US securities. The total net drop was $68.7 billion, the largest in one month since the severe “dollar warning” in June 2013. Though we have become accustomed to these kinds of results, the biggest factor in April 2016 was on the [...]
The Treasury Department’s updated official custody figures show us nothing unexpected. As usual, the TIC numbers are useful more so in corroboration of what contemporary analysis had already described. In the case of March 2016, we find just the sort of apparent reduction in “dollar” pressure that matches observation of general global conditions after February. Total net “flow” was +$64.7 [...]
The “first” part of the TIC data update for January was relatively straightforward, especially since the scale of the net transaction adjustments in both December and January really did match what happened in January (crossing into February). The Treasury Department’s estimate for foreign holdings of US dollar assets were nothing short of remarkable in all the ways that were expected [...]
For reasons relatively easy to figure out, the massive flood of repo fails from a few weeks back was largely ignored outside of a few minor references. Not much has been made of it at all, and why would there be since it is really hard to shove the imbalance into “the narrative.” That isn’t to say that there haven’t [...]
December was one of the worst months on record for foreign dealing with the “dollar.” The latest TIC update further confirms why January was under such persistent and heavy liquidation pressure in almost every corner. There was a record monthly amount of “selling UST’s” in foreign channels, a dearth of private “dollar” activity and, perhaps most important of all, bank [...]
The November update for TIC figures shows relatively few surprises given what was witnessed November into December then January. The heavy downdraft of October was somewhat reversed, and even the official sector was probably less strained (outside of China) than at any time in 2015. But these are reactive symptoms to the greater problem of “dollar” availability, so the most [...]
The TIC update for August estimates provided some clarity on several accounts. Given the nastiness of the “dollar” environment in that month it was certain that the Treasury Department would display negative “dollar” conditions, and that was the case. The numerous subcomponents and categories were quite useful in corroborating that picture, even if there was some work and re-orientation in [...]
With close experience to the “dollar” run in July and August, we should expect that at least the contours of that disorder would be visible in the TIC data for July. The figures provided by the Treasury Dept. did not disappoint. In fact, the “dollar” waves themselves become almost fully visible in the data here and have really illuminated the [...]
The latest update for TIC “flow”, for the month of May, was mostly what was expected given the “dollar pause” at that time. Central banks were still active but not nearly as engaged as they had been through the worst parts of the “dollar” crisis in late 2014 and early 2015. Official accounts (central banks and foreign governments) had turned [...]
At first glance, the TIC view of the global “dollar” short was quite placid in April. That makes some sense given that the March 2015 FOMC meeting has been established as a durable inflection in the outward projection of “dollar” funding. The flow direction, at least among what are listed as “private” sources, would seem to conform to that interpretation. [...]
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