Since November of 2014, the S&P 500 Index (IVV) has been traded within a range of 100 or so points. During that time, it has broken the 50-day moving average a total of 4 times, but has yet to break support at the 200. And this coming week might see us break it for the fifth time if we can’t clear the 2060 level. The S&P 500 is flat for the year, with a gain of only 0.04% year-to-date.
The EMU Index ((EZU)), or the European Economic and Monetary Union, may have just broken through an ugly downtrend line that its been mired in for some time. The news out of Europe is improving slightly, except for the ascension of a new radical government in Greece, and the market has responded as a result, forming a short-term uptrend line. The index is up 2.17% for all of 2015.
The Russian Index ((RSX)) has been hit pretty hard by the US-EU-imposed sanctions, but it finally finds itself breaking resistance, possibly setting itself up for a nice run, as the market is extremely cheap. If only Putin could stop from continuing to provoke and antagonize the West, this could have room to run. RSX is up a healthy 11.69% in 2015 after a harsh 2014 where it saw a 50% decline.
A stronger US dollar and crashing crude oil prices finally took its toll on the Middle East Index((GULF)). The index broke below both MAs as crude prices have fallen over 40% in the last few months. It has recovered some in the last month as the Islamic State is finally being contained in Iraq and Syria. The index is up 2.15% since the beginning of the year.
The Latin American market ((ILF)) broke down in September in emphatic fashion. It broke through both the 50-day and the 200-day moving averages on its way to a 15% loss in a little over a month. It was moved concurrently with the crashing commodities market and is still struggling to hold support. It must hold that 30 level if it wants to rebound in any meaningful way. The index has recorded a 2.73% loss this year.
Africa’s market ((AFK)) has managed to grind higher for most of 2014. But the deadly Ebola outbreak and continued upheaval in Northern Africa, coupled with a weak global economy, has finally dampened Africa’s run. It is up 0.46% for 2015.
The Chinese economy, along with the Indian and Southeast Asian economies, has been trending up despite the strong US dollar. It now finds itself just below the 200 day moving average after holding the 44 level a few weeks ago. The Pacific x-Japan index ((EPP)) is up 3.73% in 2015.
Japan ((EWJ)) broke out this past week after the BOJ unexpectedly eased monetary policy a few months ago. Japan is up 3.65% YTD.
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