Overall, the employment pictures remains healthy. Higher frequency weekly initial claims are trending in the right direction (lower). Aggregate hours worked are still growing at 2.2% YOY. While positive the growth in total hours worked [...]
Macro: Regional Business Surveys
Regional Surveys from Philly, NY, Texas and Chicago are all at levels previously indicative of a recession. The lone false signal was the Texas General Business Activity Index in January 2016...the weakness was regionally isolated [...]
Macro: Factory Orders
Factory Orders continues to slow after pandemic surge. Questions to ask: Is the slowing just reversion after a pandemic surge because of supply chain disruptions, onshoring, low interest rate, stimulus? Thus, will this be the [...]
Do You Really Want AI to Pick Your Stocks?
AI this and AI that. It seems AI is dominating a huge part of our national discussion. Part of society believes AI will elevate us to unfettered heights never before known in the history of [...]
Weekly Market Pulse: A Hill of Beans
Every time we hear, watch, or read the news, we are reminded that liberty is a rare commodity in this world. - Ronald Reagan It is foolish and wrong to mourn the men who [...]
Macro: Housing Starts and Permits
Housing starts and permits for April are running at a level of right around 1.4M units down from around 1.8M last year. That's a drop of 22% in starts and 21% in permits. 1.4M units [...]
Are Seniors Getting Stiffed by Social Security?
The past two years have seen historic Cost-of-Living Adjustments for Social Security recipients. The increases of 5.9% in 2022 and 8.7% in 2023 were the highest they’d been in 40 years because of rampant [...]
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