Markets

Weekly Market Pulse: Higher For Longer

By |2023-09-25T06:44:02-04:00September 24th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

"Higher for longer." That's what the Fed says they intend to do with interest rates and investors finally decided to believe them last week. Bond yields, which have been stagnant since peaking last October, finally broke above the trading range they've been in for all that time. Short-term rates also moved higher but not as dramatically and the result was [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: The Dividend Stock Conundrum

By |2023-09-18T08:03:45-04:00September 17th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Everybody loves dividend stocks. Some prefer stocks with high dividend yields and some prefer stocks of companies that have grown their dividends consistently, but dividends are an essential component of many (we think it should be all) investors' portfolios. The two methodologies produce quite different portfolios but over the long run, they both perform very well on a total return [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Where Are The Extremes?

By |2023-09-11T03:54:17-04:00September 10th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Every weekend I sit down at my desk and write the title of this post at the top of a legal pad. I make a list of everything I can identify as trading at an extreme in markets. If an investor is to make tactical changes to their portfolio, it is in the extremes where they will find their greatest [...]

Macro: Factory Orders and PMI’s

By |2023-09-05T21:30:07-04:00September 5th, 2023|Markets|

Durable order soften after early summer strength. Total manufacturing remains slightly negative YOY% change. This is a July report. On Friday we received the survey data for August. The 2 indices continue to give a bit of a mixed message. The ISM number, while still contractionary looks like it may have bottomed in July. The S&P PMI continues to predict [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Wrong Again

By |2023-09-05T06:54:24-04:00September 4th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

There were some very smart people a year ago saying that you couldn't kill inflation without a big rise in unemployment. Last October, Larry Summers - former Treasury Secretary and President of Harvard - said we'd need a recession and an unemployment rate of 6% to kill inflation. In the summer of last year, he said we'd need 5 years [...]

Happy Labor Day — Labor v Capital

By |2023-09-03T13:41:23-04:00September 3rd, 2023|Markets|

The age old argument of the importance of labor versus capital in society. Heather Cox Richardson, professor of history at Boston College, presents the viewpoints of South Carolina Senator James Henry Hammond and "rising politician Abraham Lincoln." Plot spoiler, it seems not much has changed since the late 1850's. It's a nice concise summary of the argument. https://open.substack.com/pub/heathercoxrichardson/p/september-2-2023?r=5wnnr&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web  

Is China Investable? China in the 21st Century

By |2023-08-31T09:55:41-04:00August 31st, 2023|Markets|

Unchanged this century. Value or no? Certainly a topic for discussion. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the information herein constitutes an investment recommendation, investment advice or an investment outlook. The opinions and conclusions contained in [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: The Fault Is Not In R-Star

By |2023-08-28T07:54:21-04:00August 27th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Why, man, he doth bestride the narrow world Like a Colossus, and we petty men Walk under his huge legs and peep about To find ourselves dishonorable graves. Men at some time are masters of their fates. The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, But in ourselves, that we are underlings. Julius Caesar, Act I, Scene II The [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Is The Correction Over?

By |2023-08-21T07:43:46-04:00August 21st, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Stocks are now down from their late July peak by about 5%. It has been a very orderly pullback with most of the major averages shaving off about the same amount. The exceptions are the NASDAQ, which peaked a little earlier than the S&P, and REITs, both down about 7.5%. The NASDAQ is more volatile than the S&P so it [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: A Positive Feedback Loop?

By |2023-08-14T08:40:34-04:00August 14th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The 10 year Treasury yield has been in an uptrend since the summer of 2021 which is obvious to anyone who can see. It has stalled a couple of times and moved sideways - consolidated in Wall Street technical speak - but the trend is obvious (see below). It seems only a matter of time before we break above the [...]

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