Orders and output falling and now labor... “The slowdown is spreading to the labor market. Payrolls were cut for a third month running as increasing numbers of firms grew concerned about the development of excess operating capacity. The fourth quarter has consequently seen factories reduce employment at a pace not seen since 2009 barring only the early pandemic lockdown months."-- [...]
The headline number will be choppy for a few months because of dynamics from the end of 2022 and beginning of 2023. Core capital goods will be the series providing the most information for the time being. It bounced off 0% growth and is back closer to 2%, which is welcome news. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational [...]
What's more pertinent? The index jumped 14% this month. The index has been in an uptrend for the last 18 months. The index is still weak relative to the last decade. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None [...]
Outside of the pandemic defined as 2020 and 2021, this past quarter was the 5th best quarter for nominal GDP in the last 25 years. It was the best real growth quarter since Q2 and Q3 of 2014. The last 12 months has been mostly about services, here are the biggest contributors to YoY GDP: Consumption of Services Consumption of [...]
Tis was a poor number. The headline dropped from -5.9 to -10.5. The more eye popping number was the Index for New Orders which dropped from 1.3 to -25.6. I hate to say it, the diffusion index for new orders has never gone below 21 without an accompanying recession; that is until 2023. This is the 4th reading in the [...]
Initial unemployment claims is up 2000 to 205,000. It remains at very low levels indicating continued employment strength. To put these levels in perspective, in the last cycle from 2009 to 2020 the first week of claims of 205,000 or lower came in 2018, nine years into the upcycle. Continuing claims dropped 1,000 and remains in a holding pattern after [...]
Existing home sales rose in November to an annual rate of 3,820,000 units from 3,790,000 in October. This is 7% lower than November 2022, but the negative growth in sales is improving. If the National Association of Realtor's expectations for 4,710,000 sales in 2024 is correct, this series will show positive growth which could be north of 20%. Inflation in [...]
Housing starts jumped by 201,000 in November. While the number beat expectations in an eye popping way, I don't expect to see a meaningful upswing. Construction activity is already historically high and seems to be constrained. There is plenty of backlog of houses waiting to be built. And, we seem to be working through those unfilled orders. Units under construction [...]
Industrial production has flat-lined over the past year. The YoY growth number is still negative but a bit better in Nov at -.4%. Dec 2022 was bad, so with a flat index for the next 2 months, YoY growth will be positive 1.1% for Dec23 and return to no growth in Jan24. We have been onshoring manufacturing. With flat industrial [...]
After a terrible ISM survey at the beginning of the month, GDPNow was indicating 1.2% growth. After a strong employment and retail sales report, GDPNow has more than double to 2.6%. Strong employment leading to strong consumption is the theme. Personal consumption is 68% of the economy and driving 78% of growth this quarter. Disclaimer: This information is presented for [...]
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