Leave It To Eurodollar

By |2022-06-30T17:14:09-04:00June 30th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was the laziest of arguments, saturated with desperation, too, the equivalent of waving around sophistry to answer for the painfully contradictory truth. Now that feces and fans are getting further acquainted, we have the necessary perspective to settle the matter once and for all. The matter refuses to be settled, however; I mean, it’s 2022 and we’re still arguing [...]

Eurodollar Futures Interpretation Is Everywhere

By |2022-06-29T20:06:25-04:00June 29th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Consumer confidence in Germany never really picked up all that much last year. Conflating CPIs with economic condition, this divergence proved too big of a mystery. When the German GfK, for example, perked up only a tiny bit around September and October 2021, the color of consumer prices clouded judgement and interpretation of what had always been a damning situation.From [...]

Getting Whipped Will Really Hurt

By |2022-06-28T19:59:10-04:00June 28th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve’s various branches don’t just do manufacturing surveys anymore. This is a modern economy, after all, meaning industry isn’t the same top dog as what it used to be. While still important, and still able to tear down even the global-iest synchronized of growth-y, services are the big macro enchilada. Reflecting this fact, there are now regional Fed [...]

Demand Down, Supply Down, Ugly Up

By |2022-06-28T18:37:34-04:00June 28th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Well, that was a mess. The Richmond Fed’s Manufacturing Survey was at first released before being taken back. Initially reported as a plunge in the headline number, it was quickly scrapped once the statisticians remembered they had just discontinued their average workweek component – but had kept a zero in its place when tallying the overall PMI.With it, the PMI [...]

It’s Inventory PLUS Demand

By |2022-06-27T20:23:49-04:00June 27th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not just the flood of never-ending inventory. That’s a huge and growing problem, sure, as the chickens of last year’s short-termism overordering finally come home to their retailer roost. Being stuck with too many goods isn’t necessarily fatal to the global and domestic manufacturing sectors.The scale of the burden is one key worry, though equally so is demand. When [...]

Wait A Sec, That’s Not Really An *RMB* Liquidity Pool…

By |2022-06-27T20:25:13-04:00June 27th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Ben Bernanke once admitted how the job of the post-truth “central banker” is to try to convince the market to do your work for you. What he didn’t say was that this was the only prayer officials had for any success. Because if the market ever decided that talk wasn’t enough, only real money in hand would do, everyone’d be [...]

Nasty Number Five, Not Hawk Hiking CBs

By |2022-06-24T19:49:31-04:00June 24th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not recession fears, those are in the past. For much if not most (vast majority) of mainstream pundits and newsmedia alike, unlike regular folks this is all news to them (the irony, huh?) Economists and central bankers everywhere had said last year was a boom, a true inflationary inferno raging worldwide. For once, CPIs (or European HICPs) seemed to [...]

Widespread Sentiment Declines, Particularly Manufacturing New Orders

By |2022-06-23T19:48:34-04:00June 23rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s an ominous though hardly surprising development. This has been shocking for those involved. Many if not most shipping companies had convinced themselves that once Shanghai and China’s vast harbor facilities were opened back up there’d be at least a mini-boom, a surge in activity for the world (America) to make up for lost time. Container rates were widely anticipated [...]

The Biggest Risk, No Surprise, Collateral

By |2022-06-23T19:10:24-04:00June 23rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not just the 4-week T-bill rate which is defying the Fed’s illusion of control, though that’s where the incidents are most evident. The front bill is nowhere close to the official RRP “floor” which can only mean one thing: collateral shortage, a large and persistent liquidity premium. Therefore, the further under said floor, the more the competition for the [...]

It’s Starting To Dawn On People There Is No Global Economic Dawn Lit By China

By |2022-06-21T20:04:45-04:00June 21st, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Xi Jinping’s earlier “stimulus” promises had originally stimulated the Keynesian-addled imaginations of Western observers and Economists. Hearing only that single word, they didn’t appear much interested in any of its details. Like how Emperors facing increasingly grave difficulties historically tend to stimulate their own capacity for remaining Emperor above everything else.For a very brief moment, as Shanghai reopened, there were [...]

Contact

Firm Brochure (Form ADV – Part II)
Relationship Summary
Privacy Policy
Code of Ethics
Go to Top