Economy

So Long As The Bucket Is Full of Holes, Treasury Demand Comes First

By |2020-07-13T16:40:50-04:00July 13th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Foreigners are dumping their Treasuries! The Fed is monetizing the debt! The federal government has gone insane! Mass fiscal hysteria!Yet, yields on these things are comfortably within sight of their record lows as prices have never been higher. Supply is very obviously off-the-charts, but so, too, must be demand. Every time we hear about “too many” Treasuries the market yet [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 17: From Bond Yields to Communism, Don’t Call It A Comeback

By |2020-07-13T14:47:42-04:00July 13th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

AlhambraTube: https://youtu.be/blCLdWwl8gIApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Podbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkr Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr   Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emilulous.  Artwork by David 'Straight Outta London' Parkins.  Podcast intro and outro is "Callin Shots" by Damma Beatz at Epidemic Sound. [Emil's Summary] Is the post-2008 economic 'boom' proving Marxism? Would [...]

Sign of the Times: Gold Has Its Most Vocal Proponents Helping Sell Jay Powell’s Fiction

By |2020-07-10T19:02:28-04:00July 10th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Gold at $1800 an ounce has a lot of people you wouldn’t expect lining up in Jay Powell’s camp. What else could it be, right? Bullion is an inflation hedge, that’s what everyone says. Therefore, quite obviously, skyrocketing gold must indicate the dollar destruction gold aficionados are always predicting. Unbeknownst to them, and likely to agitate the hell out of [...]

Revolving Claims Labor Market Destruction

By |2020-07-10T17:11:11-04:00July 10th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Jobless claims are not a BLS statistic, which is one key reason why we might not expect perfect consistency with the major payroll reports at times. Times like these, in particular. Instead, the numbers for unemployment insurance applications and payments are tracked by the US Employment and Training Administration (both agencies fall within the Department of Labor). And if the [...]

Europe Losing Momentum With Its Biggest Positives Ever

By |2020-07-08T19:55:30-04:00July 8th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Italy had been one of hardest hit countries, if not the worst for a good while. For months rather than weeks, life was shut down in an effort to get ahead of COVID-19 while it ravaged seemingly unchecked. It became a buzzword of sorts, the name of the nation synonymous with the pandemic itself. Don’t be Italy.As a result, the [...]

Yield Caps = Toddlers

By |2020-07-08T17:42:59-04:00July 8th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve has cut its QE purchasing pace, and yet the US Treasury Department doesn’t seem hampered by a shortage of bidders for its record-setting note auctions. Far from “too many” Treasuries, prices are once more unequivocal how there aren’t enough. With or without Powell, the auction record is clear and, unlike those constantly talking up the BOND ROUT!!! [...]

Don’t Low Rates On Junk Bonds Mean Fed-fueled Credit Bubble? No. Precisely The Opposite.

By |2020-07-07T19:37:31-04:00July 7th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Despite what we’ve all been taught, and what gets reinforced in the media, it’s not really that difficult to get people to see the interest rate fallacy at least where it all starts. Central bankers say that low rates are stimulus when this runs contrary to every bit of historical experience as well as evidence. Yes, they are lying to [...]

Second Wave Global Trade

By |2020-07-07T17:33:30-04:00July 7th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Unlike some sentiment indicators, the ISM Non-manufacturing, in particular, actual trade in goods continued to contract in May 2020. Both exports and imports fell further, though the rate of descent has improved. In fact, that’s all the other, more subdued PMI’s like Markit’s have been suggesting. Getting closer to a bottom.Unlike any of the sentiment numbers, however, these trade figures [...]

Gratuitously Impatient (For a) Rebound

By |2020-07-06T17:23:56-04:00July 6th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Jay Powell’s 2018 case for his economic “boom”, the one which was presumably behind his hawkish aggression, rested largely upon the unemployment rate alone. A curiously thin roster for a period of purported economic acceleration, one of the few sets joining that particular headline statistic in its optimism resides in the lower tiers of all statistics. The sentiment contained within [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 16: What Is…Eurodollar Mailbag?

By |2020-07-06T15:45:28-04:00July 6th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

AlhambraTube: https://youtu.be/6cSQvYa3E8I   Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr   Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/   [Emil's Summary]  Jeff Snider answers your questions about central banks, inflation, measuring money, private banks... and potpourri? A Jeopardy!-style mailbag show with the 'Cliff Clavin of the Eurodollar'.After half-a-century, some 8,000 episodes and numerous tournament of champions the American television game [...]