Economy

Has Inflation Killed the Easter Bunny?

By |2023-03-30T11:24:23-04:00March 30th, 2023|Economy, Markets|

The Easter Bunny may have a lighter load this year. With the price of eggs so high, people will save them for breakfast instead of coloring them and hiding them for the kids. Dollar Tree, a discount variety store and Fortune 500 company that operates 15,115 stores in 48 states and Canada, has pulled eggs from its shelves. According to [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Perspective

By |2023-03-27T07:47:12-04:00March 26th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

There has been a lot of angst over the last couple of weeks about a potential banking crisis. There have been 4 failures so far: Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Credit Suisse. The first of these hasn't been mentioned much because it was primarily associated with lending in the crypto market and, as far as I know, there [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Been There, Done That

By |2023-03-20T07:51:06-04:00March 19th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

A bank's assets triple over a few years when interest rates are low. The bank invests those assets in long-term, higher-yielding municipal bonds with little credit risk. Inflation flares up and interest rates rise, reducing the value of the municipal bonds and funding dries up. Regulators become concerned that the failure of this bank could damage public confidence in the [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: It Isn’t A Bailout!

By |2023-03-13T07:58:06-04:00March 12th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Last week started with investors focused on Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress and any hints about future monetary policy. During the course of two days of testimony, which was deemed more hawkish than expected, the market priced in another rate hike and pushed out the possibility of a rate cut all the way to January 2024. The week ended with [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: What Moves Markets

By |2023-03-06T09:13:58-05:00March 5th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

With the 1-year Treasury bill paying 5%, why would anyone take the risk of owning stocks? - Everyone It is a good question and I can't tell you what investors will do this year or how stocks will perform, but history says it isn't the level of rates that matters for stock returns. Believe it or not, it isn't even [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Good News Is Good News

By |2023-02-27T07:23:06-05:00February 26th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

I think everyone can agree that stocks and bonds sold off last year because interest rates rose. You might get some argument about why rates rose but the fact they did is sufficient to explain the drop in stocks and bonds. It doesn't matter if you think rates went up because the Fed raised their target rate on Fed funds [...]

Abolishing the IRS

By |2023-02-15T08:53:32-05:00February 15th, 2023|Economy, Financial Planning, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

What’s that I hear? It’s very faint, but it sounds familiar. I cup my hand around my ear to hear better and, yes, I’ve heard it before. In the distance, there are shouts of “Abolish the IRS. We want a Fair Tax.” The idea of a Fair Tax was first introduced in 1999 by former Georgia Congressman John Linder. His [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Look Up In The Sky! It’s A UFO! Or Not!

By |2023-02-13T07:51:25-05:00February 12th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

As I sit here writing this Sunday afternoon, the US has just shot down a third UFO in the last 3 days in addition to the Chinese "weather" balloon last week. I have no insight into what these things might be but I do wonder if we haven't declared war on the National Weather Service. The federal government has become [...]

A Heavy Duty Recession Indicator

By |2023-02-07T18:22:47-05:00February 7th, 2023|Alhambra Research, Economy|

I was reading Bill McBride's blog, Calculated Risk, recently and came across this post on heavy truck sales as a recession indicator. As Bill notes: Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession.   Sales were solid in January. It certainly looks like sales do indeed peak before recession. But how long before recession? Does this really work as [...]

Questions

By |2023-02-07T12:28:27-05:00February 7th, 2023|Economy, Markets, Stocks|

Has the Fed's rate hiking campaign actually lowered inflation? Or would it have happened anyway? Jerome Powell has said that the rate hikes would involve "pain" but if that is the criteria I don't see it. Higher rates have hit the real estate market but almost nothing else. And even there, mortgage rates are now trending back down and activity [...]

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