As is usually the case, ShopperTrak was cautiously optimistic about holiday retail sales for 2012. In September 2012, the firm estimated total spending growth to be about 3.3% above 2011, with a more modest 2.8% increase Y/Y in foot traffic. By January 2013, it appeared as if total retail sales only grew at a 2.5% rate. That was down from [...]
With the optimistic rhetoric of the beginning of the year fading, retailers are beginning to react to falling expectations while simultaneously hoping that even those will actually be met and not further downgraded. I could use any number of economic statistics to demonstrate this depressing the consumer impulse, and the timing of it, but it all really comes down to [...]
Headline employment figures had been displaying a far better indication of the labor market than most of the internal, non-adjusted numbers for January and February. Unfortunately, in March the headline finally converged with disappointing internals rather than the other way around. In the Establishment Survey, the headline increase of 88k was far below expectations, and even below the lowest estimate. [...]
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