jsnider

About Jeffrey P. Snider

Jeff is the Head of Global Research at Alhambra. Though his work makes it sound like he is an economist, he is no such thing. Rather, through intense personal study he has developed a very different sense of especially the hidden inner workings of the global monetary system - beginning with the fact that it is a global money system. With a very unique starting point, Alhambra's research truly begins in a way that no one else's does.

Was It A Midpoint And Did We Already Pass Through It?

By |2020-02-21T18:41:17-05:00February 21st, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We certainly don’t have a crystal ball at the ready, and we can’t predict the future. The best we might hope is to entertain reasonable probabilities for it oftentimes derived from how we see the past. Which is just what statistics and econometrics attempt. Except, wherein they go wrong we don’t have to make their mistakes. For example, in the [...]

Number Four Gets Back To Looking Nasty

By |2020-02-21T17:22:40-05:00February 21st, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Shocking, perhaps, but in no way unexpected. IHS Markit didn’t just throw a wrench into all that talk about a global rebound, the organization solidly hammered a substantial nail in its coffin. According the flash estimates for February 2020, the US economy hit a skid. The manufacturing version dropped back to 50.8 from 51.9 in January. The rebound on this [...]

Time Again For Triple Digit Dollar

By |2020-02-20T18:56:48-05:00February 20th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Being a member of the institutional “elite” means never having to say you’re sorry; or even admit that you have no idea what you are doing. For Christine Lagarde, Mario Draghi’s retirement from the European Central Bank could not have come at a more opportune moment. Fresh off the Argentina debacle, she failed herself upward to an even better gig. [...]

Chart Roundup: Bonds Are Indeed Confident

By |2020-02-20T17:52:16-05:00February 20th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Making the rounds on Twitter yesterday (h/t to M. Simmons) was a quote attributed to Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. I can’t find any confirmation for it so it could be one of those fake news tweet situations. And the only reason I include it here is because it sounds like something he would say; the urge to pile on [...]

The TIC of CNY and China’s 2020 Risks

By |2020-02-19T17:23:14-05:00February 19th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What’s going on in China? It’s a question that is on everyone’s mind. While most attention is focused on the unfolding human tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic, the potential for it to be compounded by any economic fallout makes for even more urgency. The sad truth is that China was in rough shape heading into the coronavirus. How rough, though? [...]

The Real F-ing Boom

By |2020-02-18T18:54:40-05:00February 18th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I can’t believe this is necessary, a sign of the times and a perfect example/explanation of how it got this far. In case you haven’t heard, President Trump has gotten into a Twitter spat with his predecessor former President Obama. For reasons that have nothing to do with legitimate economics (small “e”), both men are attempting to take credit for [...]

Japanese Data: Much More In Store For Number Four

By |2020-02-18T17:01:24-05:00February 18th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

They put it off so long they backed themselves into this corner. The Japanese government under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had originally scheduled two VAT tax hikes as part of the rollout for Abenomics. It would be inflationary and fiscally responsible all in one pass. To make sure Japan’s perpetually struggling economy could absorb any fallout from them while still [...]

European Data: Much More In Store For Number Four

By |2020-02-14T18:29:01-05:00February 14th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s just Germany. It’s just industry. The excuses pile up as long as the downturn. Over across the Atlantic the situation has only now become truly serious. The European part of this globally synchronized downturn is already two years long and just recently is it becoming too much for the catcalls to ignore. Central bankers are trying their best to, [...]

US Sales and Production Remain Virus-Free, But Still Aren’t Headwind-Free

By |2020-02-14T17:18:26-05:00February 14th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The lull in US consumer spending on goods has reached a fifth month. The annual comparisons aren’t good, yet they somewhat mask the more recent problems appearing in the figures. According to the Census Bureau, total retail sales in January rose 4.58% year-over-year (unadjusted). Not a good number, but better, seemingly, than early on in 2019 when the series was [...]

You Shouldn’t Miss The Cupom

By |2020-02-13T18:56:52-05:00February 13th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I actually wanted to focus on this yesterday but confirmation wasn’t forthcoming until today. So, it ended up being a broader note on the dollar which only included some mention of Brazil in passing. Still a worthwhile couple of minutes. There were rumors that Banco (central) do Brasil was intervening or was going to intervene in its local currency markets, [...]