jsnider

About Jeffrey P. Snider

Jeff is the Head of Global Research at Alhambra. Though his work makes it sound like he is an economist, he is no such thing. Rather, through intense personal study he has developed a very different sense of especially the hidden inner workings of the global monetary system - beginning with the fact that it is a global money system. With a very unique starting point, Alhambra's research truly begins in a way that no one else's does.

The BIS Misses An Opportunity To Get Consistent With The Facts

By |2019-12-09T17:22:20-05:00December 9th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Much has been made about the repo market since mid-September. Much continues to be made about it. The question is why. It is now near the middle of December and repo looks dicey despite repo operations and a not-QE small-scale asset purchase intended to increase the level of bank reserves. Always the focus on “funds” which may be available. It [...]

You Will Never Bring It Back Up If You Have No Idea Why It Falls Down And Stays Down

By |2019-12-06T18:46:59-05:00December 6th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t actually Keynes who coined the term “pump priming”, though he became famous largely for advocating for it. Instead, it was Herbert Hoover, of all people, who began using it to describe (or try to) his Reconstruction Finance Corporation. Hardly the do-nothing Roosevelt accused Hoover of being, as President, FDR’s predecessor was the most aggressive in American history to [...]

Disposable (Employment) Figures

By |2019-12-06T17:36:44-05:00December 6th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If last month’s payroll report was declared to be strong at +128k, then what would that make this month’s +266k? Epic? Heroic? The superlatives are flying around today, as you should expect. This Payroll Friday actually fits the times. It wasn’t great, they never really are nowadays (when you adjust for population and participation), but it was a good one [...]

A Time Recession

By |2019-12-05T19:12:35-05:00December 5th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Eurostat confirmed earlier today that Europe has so far avoided recession. At least, it hasn’t experienced what Economists call a cyclical peak. During the third quarter of 2019, Real GDP expanded by a thoroughly unimpressive +0.235% (Q/Q). This was a slight acceleration from a revised +0.185% the quarter before. The real question, though, is whether the business cycle approach means [...]

More Signals Of The Downturn, Globally Synchronized

By |2019-12-05T17:02:01-05:00December 5th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For US importers, October is their month. And it makes perfect sense how it would be. With the Christmas season about to kick into full swing each and every November, the time for retailers to stock up in hearty anticipation is in the weeks beforehand. The goods, a good many future Christmas presents, find themselves in transit from all over [...]

All Signs Of More Slack

By |2019-12-04T18:24:56-05:00December 4th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The evidence continues to pile up for increasing slack in the US economy. While that doesn’t necessarily mean there is a recession looming, it sure doesn’t help in that regard. Besides, more slack after ten years of it is the real story. The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure in October 2019 stood at 1.31%, matching February for the lowest in [...]

Fails Swarms Are Just One Part

By |2019-12-04T16:31:02-05:00December 4th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There it was sticking out like a sore thumb right in the middle of what should have been the glory year. Everything seemed to be going just right for once, success so close you could almost feel it. Well, “they” could. The year was 2014 and the unemployment rate in the US was tumbling, the result of the “best jobs [...]

Consistent Trade War Inconsistency Hides The Consistent Trend

By |2019-12-03T18:53:40-05:00December 3rd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You can see the pattern, a weathervane of sorts in its own right. Not for how the economy is actually going, mind you, more along the lines of how it is being perceived from the high-level perspective. The green light for “trade wars” in the first place was what Janet Yellen and Jay Powell had said about the economy. Because [...]

The Risen (euro)Dollar

By |2019-12-03T16:07:17-05:00December 3rd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Back in April, while she was quietly jockeying to make sure her name was placed at the top of the list to succeed Mario Draghi at the ECB, Christine Lagarde detoured into the topic of central bank independence. At a joint press conference held with the Governor of the Reserve Bank of South Africa, Lesetja Kganyago, as the Managing Director [...]

The ISM Isn’t An Isolated Case

By |2019-12-02T18:59:41-05:00December 2nd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

They absolutely loved the China PMI numbers, after having taken no note of Japan’s IP, dismissed Markit’s slightly higher revisions, and then totally hated the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI. That last one was supposed to join the others in moving substantially upward, contributing to widespread hopes all recession fears have been extinguished even this late into 2019. Instead, the Institute of [...]