About Jeffrey P. Snider

Give us a call at 1-888-777-0970 or via email at info@alhambrapartners.com to discuss how his unique approach informs our investment decisions. We'd be happy to discuss our investment strategies and provide a complimentary portfolio review. Jeff is the Head of Global Research at Alhambra Investments. He is not an economist, which is probably why he's been able to develop a working model of the global monetary system. His research is unique and informative in ways an economist would never consider.

The Hawks Circle Here, The Doves Win There

By |2022-01-21T18:44:35-05:00January 21st, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We’ve been here before, near exactly here. On this side of the Pacific Ocean, in the US particularly the situation was said to be just grand. The economy was responding nicely to QE’s 3 and 4 (yes, there were four of them by that point), Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke had said in the middle of 2013 it was becoming [...]

Good Time To Go Fish(er)ing Around The Yield Curve

By |2022-01-20T20:01:52-05:00January 20th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It should be as simple as it sounds. Lower LT UST yields, less growth and inflation. Thus, higher LT UST yields, more growth and inflation. Right? If nominal levels are all there is to it, then simplicity rules the interpretation. Visiting with George Gammon last week, he confessed to committing this sin of omission. Rates have gone up, he reasoned [...]

Deeper Into The Weeds of TIC For Red, Blue, And Collateral

By |2022-01-19T19:40:55-05:00January 19th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why are US banks borrowing hundreds of billions of US “dollars” (quotation marks fully deserved given the nature of these borrowings which are neither physical currency nor easily identifiable even on the global ledger, too many classified here as “other”) from themselves? Technically, for regulatory and accounting purposes “American” banks (a classification which includes domestic subsidiaries of foreign banks) are [...]

Flipping Several Scripts

By |2022-01-18T19:54:15-05:00January 18th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The script has been flipped, so to speak, this time around. Whenever we’d go through one of those regular, alternating downturns worldwide, like the one which began right from the start of 2018, it was services which held up the increasingly troubled manufacturing sector. The variation for the swing, from globally synchronized growth to globally synchronized downturn, was mostly contained [...]

What Kind of Tiger ‘Needs’ Wings?

By |2022-01-18T18:34:43-05:00January 18th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Chinese Communists, like their counterparts everywhere around the world, they do love their metaphors. Speaking virtually at Davos again in 2022 like he had in 2021, the theme was largely the same. A year ago, China's dictator had warned about the uncertainty of the global recovery, a celebratory party only then getting going around those parts; he got that one [...]

Eurodollar Futures Curve Update (spoiler: still inverted)

By |2022-01-14T20:00:49-05:00January 14th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I guess I took my own advice a little too literally. I did write that when the eurodollar futures curve first inverted, it was going to be dull. Didn’t start out that way, of course, with a small bit of theatrics right during that front week in December when the inversion first showed up. Ever since then, it has stuck [...]

The Historic Christmas Binge

By |2022-01-14T17:00:05-05:00January 14th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The reason that store shelves are occasionally empty, as any social media hashtag trend will tell you, is that Americans are still buying an amazing amount of goods. For December 2021, Christmas was hardly canceled. The Census Bureau today reported that retailers during the biggest month of last year, of every year, grabbed an astoundingly huge $714 billion in overall [...]

US CPI Reaches Seven On US Goods Prices, With Disinflation Setting In Everywhere Else (incl. US Services)

By |2022-01-12T17:33:56-05:00January 12th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

How is that US Treasury rates out in the independent longer end of the yield curve have now “suffered” a seven percent CPI to go along with double taper and triple maybe quadruple (if the whispers are to be believed) rate hikes this year, yet have weathered all of that allegedly bond-busting brutality with barely a market fluctuation? The short [...]

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