The bounce for Germany seems to be over, and, much like US manufacturing, there appears the mini cycle. Markit PMI for Germany: Both the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment and IFO Business Climate Surveys disappointed expectations, as sentiment in Germany looks to have passed an inflection and rolled over again in sympathy with manufacturing. For an economy coming off a [...]
December sales of new homes was disappointing in that the adjusted pace did not keep up with previous months. From May 2012 through October 2012, year-over-year increases in new sales levels stayed consistently above 20%. That drove expectations that the trend in residential real estate had finally turned. Given available data, that does seem to be the case. Economists and [...]
The headline in the Establishment survey was quite a bit better than expected, but once again it was at odds with most of the rest of the employment report. The Household survey fell by 122,000 reported jobs, while 350,000 people left the labor force. The number of estimated persons not in the labor force rose to an all-time high of [...]
My theme for 2012 has been that something is different this year than the past two years of even substandard recovery. Recession looms and recent data has done nothing to make me think that trend is anything but hardening. While there was some celebration over the first revision to Q3 GDP, as headline growth was revised up to 2.7% from [...]
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