After a scorching start to the year, the S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV)) finally pulled back some, a week after setting all time highs at the 1687 level. With this weekend's release of dismal China PMI data, it seems likely that the index will continue the momentum downward to its 50-day moving average at the 1600 level. The Purchasing Managers [...]
The GSCI Commodity Index ((GSG)) consists primarily of Energy (71%), but also contains Agriculture (14%), Industrial Metals (7%), Livestock (4%), and Precious Metals (4%). After breaking out to the upside in January, the index quickly reversed course and broke down technically, moving below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The index has been mired in a ugly downtrend since early February, [...]
The Nikkei moved down over 7% in one day this week. The S&P put out a potentially bearish technical sign, A Key Reversal. The market experienced flash crashes toward the end of the week. Despite the out-sized monetary support, there is still plenty to find concerning. Global Opportunities: Rebalance the small Vix hedge. We have recently added some risk in the portfolio. [...]
In mid-November, the S&P 500 ((IVV)) had just finished breaking its 200-day moving average on its way to a multi-year low at the 1343 level. Since then, the index has been on a tear, gaining over 24% in a little over 5 months. It now finds itself at all-time highs, above short-term support, its 50-day moving average, and its 200-day [...]
Courtesy of Bob Williams: As discussed in preceding articles, there are many factors to consider in deciding when to begin taking social security. For couples, there are additional considerations which make the decision a little more complicated but may help maximize benefits. File and Suspend Assume that John has reached his full retirement age (FRA) of 66. He plans on working [...]
Courtesy of Bob Williams: “When should I begin to take Social Security?” That is one of the most frequently asked questions by those on final approach to retirement. It’s not uncommon to hear people say, “I’ve paid into Social Security for years. I’m going to take it at 62 and get what’s mine!” To be sure, that’s an understandable sentiment although [...]
Courtesy of Bob Williams: To steal a line from William Shakespeare, Social Security—To be or not to be? Virtually everyone I talk to has the same opinion, “Social Security won’t be there when I’m ready to retire.” It’s an opinion bred by years of talk in Washington ABOUT the problem and pointing fingers at everyone else BECAUSE there’s a problem, [...]
The Standard & Poor’s 500 is a stock market index based on the common stock prices of the biggest 500 publicly traded American companies. The S&P 500 ((IVV)) successfully bounced off its 50-day moving average in the past month on its way to new highs, the fourth such incident in 2013. Apparently there’s no stopping the stock markets. The index [...]
One of the top story lines of the past 6 months has been the BOJ, Abenomics, and the dramatic repricing of the Yen. To date, we are looking at about a 25% drop in the value of the Yen. This is a transparent initiative to double the monetary base over the course of 2 years and it has credibility. A few [...]
Global Opportunities Initiate CHK Our portfolio has recently been focused on technology and healthcare and underweight energy. There is room to add a value energy stock and we think natural gas has more room to run. Rig counts are down. We are seeing steady price increases in the physical. Natural gas is a clean fuel and we have a clean [...]
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