Are US markets, once again, in a bubble? Are AI stocks overvalued or are they discounting a new age of prosperity driven by big gains in productivity? What about gold? It's up over 50% this year, signaling...what exactly? Gold is a fear asset that usually shines when the economy is bad and stocks aren't doing so well. So, why is [...]
Was that it? Was that the top? A week ago, the market fell 2.7% as President Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1st. Since that Friday selloff, the market has stabilized and recovered a little over half that one day loss. The S&P 500 is now down just about 1.5% from its all-time high. Is [...]
The federal government shut down last week so we didn't get the monthly employment report last Friday and I think that may be the best news investors have gotten all year. I expect a lot of government generated economic reports to be missed during the shutdown, which I think could drag on a lot longer than previous versions. With the [...]
The price of gold set an all-time record last week, with futures trading over $3800 and spot prices just a bit less. The new price high was also an inflation-adjusted all-time high, breaking the previous record set in 1980 of about $3500 in today's dollars. The most important question facing investors today is this: why has gold more than doubled [...]
The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee met last week with both Lisa Cook and Stephen Miran voting (more on that later). The committee lowered the target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points and hinted at future cuts: Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, [...]
Market Review Asset Classes No Asset Classes or Regional Equity Markets are down. Past week: None. Past month: None. Q3-to-date: None. Year-to-date: None. Quite the turnaround from February–March. Back then, tariff chaos sank the dollar 10% in March, volatility spiked, correlations went quickly toward +1, markets cracked, and only currency havens like the euro, yen, and gold found love. [...]
Nuance: A subtle difference in or shade of meaning, expression, or sound. A subtle difference or variation. The origin of the word nuance is a Latin word, "nubes", which means cloud. It is also from the French "nuer" which means "to shade". Why am I parsing the meaning and origin of the word nuance? Because we seem to have lost [...]
Stay In Touch