Taxes/Fiscal Policy

Weekly Market Pulse: Surprises

By |2024-01-29T07:30:39-05:00January 28th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

We got the latest report on economic growth last week and it surprised most everyone. Real GDP expanded by an annualized 3.3% in the fourth quarter, well above the consensus estimate of 2%. Nominal GDP expanded an annualized 4.8% quarter to quarter and 5.8% year-over-year. The annualized quarter-to-quarter change is exactly the average annual change since 1990. Real GDP grew [...]

Macro: Treasury Statement

By |2023-12-12T17:46:23-05:00December 12th, 2023|Economy, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Last month the Federal Government spent $589B and ran a $314B deficit. To pay for the $314B they didn't have, they said they borrowed $261B from the public and drained their savings account by $73B. That doesn't quite add up but that doesn't surprise anyone. What's $34B between friends? When the Fed's savings account gets low, they have to come [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Has Inflation Really Peaked?

By |2023-11-20T07:27:19-05:00November 19th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Stocks, REITs, and bonds all rallied last week on the back of what was interpreted as good news on inflation. The CPI report was better than expected, the overall level flat from September to October. Core inflation, less food and energy, was also better than expected at up 0.2%. Producer prices, reported the day after CPI were even better, coming [...]

Macro: Retail Sales

By |2023-11-17T14:59:04-05:00November 17th, 2023|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Retail sales make up about a quarter of GDP, so an important monthly number. I saw a lot of headlines saying this was a disappointing number. But that isn't the case, the print was actually good. Sequentially, expectations were low for this print because September 2023 and October of 2022 were so strong. The sequential number was expected at -.3% [...]

I Have Questions

By |2023-07-17T07:43:30-04:00July 16th, 2023|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

I spend a lot of time asking questions. I don't always have answers to these questions but I think it is critical to ask them. Think about how the consensus might be wrong or, more importantly, how you might be. Question the narrative and try to determine what's important and what's not, who you can ignore, and who merits your [...]

What’s The Consensus Kenneth?

By |2023-06-25T15:11:36-04:00June 24th, 2023|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

I spend a lot of time thinking about what "everyone" else believes about the economy and markets. If you've been reading my weekly scribblings for any time, you know I have little faith in the soothsayers of this industry. No one knows what the future holds, least of all that group of crystal ball gazers known as economic forecasters. Most [...]

Macro: Residential Construction

By |2023-06-22T09:19:44-04:00June 21st, 2023|Alhambra Research, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Housing starts rebounded nicely in May to 1631 units from a revised lower 1340 units in April. Permits went up sequentially as well, just not as much. Both series are above the historic mean and median levels. Housing starts actually showed 5.7% growth YOY. Permits declined 12.7% from a year ago, this was a slower decline and the smallest decline [...]

All About The Benjamins

By |2023-06-17T21:17:32-04:00June 16th, 2023|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

No one could have possibly been surprised by the Fed's lack of action on Wednesday. They had signaled to anyone who would listen that they would pause (skip, take a hiatus, halt, or whatever you want to call it) at this meeting. And no one should have been surprised that Jerome Powell offered some tough talk about the future of [...]

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