Macro: Advanced GDP numbers
All advanced series released by the Census Bureau corroborate the same Q4 weakness seen in the advanced durable goods number from last week. GDPNow and almost all of the data is indicating a slow down [...]
Macro: Money Supply
It's a mountainous monetary problem. “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” -- Milton Friedman This is a real time case study. Color me skeptical about a "soft landing." At the very least , [...]
Macro: Home Prices — improbable divergence
What would you think if I told you the price of an existing house and a new house in this country were negatively correlated? (Case/Shiller HPI only measures resale). That sounds impossible and I would [...]
Macro: Consumer Confidence
Here are some of the headline sentiments I am seeing: consumer confidence rises consumer confidence rebounds consumer confidence rises for the first time in 4 months consumer is optimistic Let's take this with a grain [...]
Macro: Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
Not a good report: This continues the theme of a strong Q3 and weaker Q4 and it disappointed relative to consensus. New orders were showing some strength and divergence from general activity, but plunged back [...]
Macro: New Home Sales
New home sales have been in an uptrend for the past 15 months. That trend is slowing and has perhaps come to an end. In October, homes sold at a rate of 679,000 units per [...]
Weekly Market Pulse: Some Things To Be Thankful For
We have a lot to be thankful for here in the US of A. It is sometimes hard to remember that while being constantly bombarded by negative news, about the economy and the country more [...]
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