Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

The Astonishing Odds and Ends in November TIC

By |2020-01-22T18:22:20-05:00January 22nd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The repo story especially as it is told from the TIC perspective is our main emphasis currently. However, there are other odds and ends in the series that deserve some separate attention if not to the same level. The dollar system is more than collateralized lending, and this will include a few items that I’m going to point out for [...]

Shining Some TIC Light On The Missing (More Than) Half of The Ongoing Repo Story

By |2020-01-22T17:08:39-05:00January 22nd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why haven’t US Treasury yields exploded higher? Sure, they are, at the long end, up from their lows set in late August when the rate for the 30-year long bond reached all the way down to a new record. The winds of sentiment have shifted, benefited by globally coordinated (not quite synchronized) monetary “stimulus” as well as a healthy dose [...]

The Big And Small of Leading Japan

By |2020-01-21T18:47:02-05:00January 21st, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the middle of 2018, Japan, they said, was riding so high. Gliding along on the tidal wave of globally synchronized growth, Haruhiko’s courage and more so patience had finally delivered the long-promised recovery. The Japanese economy had healed to a point that its central bank officials believed it time to wean the thing off decades of monetary “stimulus.” They [...]

Less Shine In The Sentiment Formula

By |2020-01-21T17:47:21-05:00January 21st, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The IMF yesterday downgraded its forecasts for global growth as well as its real GDP estimates for all the big economy regions. The organization now thinks GDP growth might have amounted to 2.9% last year. Not only the worst year since 2009, that was down from April 2019 approximations of 3.6% and the original forecasts which always start out near [...]

China Enters 2020 Still (Intent On) Managing Its Decline

By |2020-01-17T19:16:18-05:00January 17th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Chinese Industrial Production accelerated further in December 2019, rising 6.9% year-over-year according to today’s estimates from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). That was a full percentage point above consensus. IP had bottomed out right in August at a record low 4.4%, and then, just as this wave of renewed optimism swept the world, it has rebounded alongside it. Rather [...]

Neither US Retail Nor Industry Ended 2019 In A Good Place

By |2020-01-17T16:26:33-05:00January 17th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

US retail sales were disappointing in December 2019, though it depends upon your perspective for what that means. Unadjusted, total retail sales were 6.01% more last month than the same month of the prior year. It was the highest year-over-year growth rate since October 2018. The reason was entirely due to base effects. You might remember Christmas 2018 for its [...]

Germany, Maybe Europe: No Signs Of The Bottom

By |2020-01-16T18:53:16-05:00January 16th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For anyone thinking the global economy is turning around, it’s not the kind of thing you want to hear. Germany has been Ground Zero for this globally synchronized downturn. That’s where it began, meaning first showed up, all the way back at the start of 2018. Ever since, the German economy has been pulling Europe down into the economic abyss [...]

Why So Much Fuss Over SOFR?

By |2020-01-16T17:56:28-05:00January 16th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

More than two years into the SOFR regime, it’s not really going all that well. Adoption remains, shall we say, questionable and uncertain even though, everyone says, LIBOR is on its way out and the Secured Overnight Financing Rate is the future. Jumbled together by the Fed’s New York branch, the latter is, we are told, superior in every conceivable [...]

Inflation, But Only At The Morgue

By |2020-01-15T19:39:04-05:00January 15th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why is everyone so angry? How can socialism possibly be on such a rise, particularly among younger people around the world? Why are Americans suddenly dying off? According to one study, two-thirds of millennials are convinced they are doing worse when compared to their parents’ generation. Sixty-two percent say they are living paycheck to paycheck, with no savings and no [...]

Why 2014? Less (Big) Banks, Fewer ‘Dollars’, No Growth

By |2020-01-15T17:22:55-05:00January 15th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One of the biggest reasons why I always find the regulations explanation(s) so lacking is because of what is the biggest part of the scientific process. The excuses for problems in global liquidity and the dollar-based banking system in general have run the gamut of regulatory exercises. Who can forget, for one example, 2a7? That was 2016’s preferred explanation for [...]