Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 89, Part 3: Bitcoin’s El Salvador Conundrum Easily Untangled By Realizing the Real Dollar Situation

By |2021-07-23T19:39:59-04:00July 23rd, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

89.3 The Real Reason El Salvador went Crypto———Ep 89.3 Summary———El Salvador announced its crypto intentions seemingly out of the blue. But a closer look reveals the nation had run dangerously short of (euro)dollars in early 2021. It went to the IMF for a bailout. Now it heads to the crypto world for one. Just like people did in the 14th-century. [...]

Maybe Interesting, Perhaps Somewhat Useful Other TIC Nuggets

By |2021-07-23T19:21:49-04:00July 23rd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I’m just going to post some brief comments on other parts of the TIC data. The major takeaway from the May 2021 update is what I wrote earlier, how what these figures show is both entirely consistent with what will be to most people a surprisingly long history as well as completely misconstrued in mainstream conversations (what few may take [...]

Yet Another Key Warning Sign, Piece Of Strong Evidence: TIC & The Long Misunderstood History of Selling Treasuries

By |2021-07-23T18:44:51-04:00July 23rd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Like so many other monetary things, the name itself is misleading though it’s not immediately clear why. The Asian Financial Crisis (or Asian flu, as many called it back in the day) began in Thailand, became a financial crisis, and spread throughout, well, Asia. How else would anyone label it?This name, however, radiates an impression that this was a lot [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 89, Part 2: Let’s Crack China’s RRR Code

By |2021-07-22T19:42:22-04:00July 22nd, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

89.2 China Warns World of (Next?) Dollar Disorder———Ep 89.2 Summary———The People's Bank of China lowers its bank Required Reserve Ratio to get money into a slowing economy. A lowered RRR means that there aren't enough (euro)dollars flowing into China. Why? Because there aren't enough (euro)dollars in the world. A lower RRR is a warning for the whole world. ———See It——— [...]

Do Rising ‘Global’ Growth Concerns Include An Already *Slowing* US Economy?

By |2021-07-22T19:39:00-04:00July 22nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Global factors, meaning that the wave of significantly higher deflationary potential (therefore, diminishing inflationary chances which were never good to begin with) in global bond yields the past five months have seemingly focused on troubles brewing outside the US. Overseas turmoil, it was called back in 2015, leaving by default a picture of relative American strength and harmony.The rest of [...]

The Contraction Is Over, Which Means The Hard Part Only Begins

By |2021-07-21T19:47:35-04:00July 21st, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Conventional wisdom has said for a long time that a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining output. Where this idea came from, who knows. It’s a shorthand that was put together over time derived from the folks at the NBER. This latter group has claimed the responsibility for being the “official” arbiter of every recession, having become the go-to [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 89, Part 1: T-bill Scarcity So Obvious Jay Powell Tells Congress About It

By |2021-07-21T16:50:34-04:00July 21st, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

89.1 Jay Powell Sees Safe-Asset Demand Surge; Why?———Ep 89.1 Summary———Jay Powell has confirmed a surging Fed program (RRP) is partly the result of safe-asset demand. But he plays it off as a monetary technicality, mere arcana. Nope! Safe-asset scarcity is step one along a well-trod path towards a malfunctioning economy. Here's what happens next. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear [...]

From China: Dollar, Deflation, And The RRRest

By |2021-07-21T16:44:25-04:00July 21st, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not necessarily a discrepancy so much as maybe looking at the same thing from a different point of view. China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reports on, among other things, the widest definition of foreign assets being under its whole national umbrella. Yet, the agency publishes balances denominated not in CNY, either US$’s or SDR’s (hey, they can [...]

Sorry, One More On Bills: Today A Really Good Example of All The Things We’ve Been Focused On Lately

By |2021-07-20T17:44:36-04:00July 20th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I had intended to lay off the T-bills today, just to write about something else, anything else, but, as often occurs, circumstances intervened. We’ve been subjecting you to seemingly unrelenting focus on Treasury bills’ various follies this year. The reason is quite simple, and trading early in the morning today a very good example both of “what” and “why.”FRBNY last [...]

Lower Yields And (fewer) Bills

By |2021-07-19T19:55:10-04:00July 19th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Back on February 23, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell stopped by (in a virtual, Zoom sense) the Senate Banking Committee to testify as required by law. In the Q&A portion, he was asked the following by Montana’s Senator Steve Daines: SENATOR DAINES. I just was looking at the T bill chart and noticing since the 1st of February, the one [...]

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