The ‘Maestro’ Is Why Jay Powell Keeps Seeing (inflation) Ghosts

By |2021-10-22T19:29:19-04:00October 22nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

See, this is backward. And while it may seem overly pedantic, getting it right is actually a crucial insight (lack thereof) into pretty much everything. Its purpose is to maintain a different sort of money illusion (the original relates to how workers focus on nominal rather than real levels of compensation). This other money illusion relates to the hidden nature [...]

Do Bonds Accurately Price Inflation? Since Before Any of Us Were Born

By |2021-10-22T18:15:00-04:00October 22nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Many, likely the vast majority believe that the recent wave of consumer price increases is going to stick around. It’s already painful and even if it isn’t inflation, they’re thinking, it soon will be. Maybe not 1970’s bad, not yet, at the very least something like then.The bond market doesn’t just disagree, it keeps doing so vehemently. Nothing new, bond [...]

You Don’t Have To Take My Word For It About Eliminating QE

By |2021-10-20T19:33:04-04:00October 20th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You don’t have to take my word for it. QE doesn’t work and it never has. That’s not just my assessment, pull out any chart of interest rates for wherever gets the misfortune of having been wasted with one of these LSAP’s. If none handy, then just read what officials and central bankers write about their own programs (or those [...]

Retracing The Yield Gap For The Unemployment Rate Isn’t The Same Thing

By |2021-10-19T19:54:13-04:00October 19th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Thomas Barkin is President and CEO of the Federal Reserve’s Fifth District branch headquartered in Richmond. Beginning the job during the tumultuous and confusing 2018 (for those wherever at the Fed), Barkin in 2021 is and has been a voting FOMC member. Whether he is judged a “hawk”, “dove”, or some other kind of feathering maniac I’d leave to the [...]

The Curve Is Missing Something Big

By |2021-10-19T18:34:46-04:00October 19th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What would it look like if the Treasury market was forced into a cross between 2013 and 2018? I think it might be something like late 2021. Before getting to that, however, we have to get through the business of decoding the yield curve since Economics and the financial media have done such a thorough job of getting it entirely [...]

Far Longer And Deeper Than Just The Past Few Months

By |2021-10-18T19:48:49-04:00October 18th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Hurricane Ida swept up the Gulf of Mexico and slammed into the Louisiana coastline on August 29. The storm would continue to wreak havoc even as it weakened the further inland it traversed. By September 1 and 2, the system was still causing damage and disruption into the Northeast of the United States.While absolutely tragic for those who suffered its [...]

Trying To Invest Prosperously In These Times Of China’s Common Prosperity

By |2021-10-18T18:04:20-04:00October 18th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Maybe the problem is the slogans, though I seriously doubt it. There are, admittedly, way too many and perhaps there is something lost in the translation. Going from Chinese to English can be notoriously tricky, and by sheer number of official catchphrases odds are a few are going to be miscast at the very least. Rebalancing. Rejuvenation. Dual Circulation. No [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Perception vs Reality

By |2021-10-18T07:46:11-04:00October 17th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times... Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities   Some see the cup as half empty. Some see the cup as half full. I see the cup as too large. George Carlin   The quote from Dickens above is one that just about everyone knows even if they don't [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 122, Part 3: The Making Of Fed Mistakes, Volcker’s Enduring Myth

By |2021-10-15T23:02:52-04:00October 15th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

122.3 1970s stagflation? No! But NOT why you think...———Ep 122.3 Summary———"Despite some eerie echoes, the past is not the best guide to the present," writes The Economist. Jeff Snider agrees, but for entirely different reasons. Stagnation? Yes, definitely. But NOT inflation - despite the clear price increases! Wait, what?———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, [...]

Slowing Down, Yes, But To What?

By |2021-10-15T22:57:21-04:00October 15th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A couple of Economists have caused some noise by reviewing consumer confidence estimates in the United States, associating big declines in them with imminent recession, and then pointing out such substantial drops in both of the major consumer sentiment surveys just recently. If valid, their correlations would seem to suggest a US contraction.We’re meant to take these seriously for one [...]

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