China Repeats Its Same Case For No-Inflation Bond Yields

By |2021-05-17T18:14:36-04:00May 17th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It makes all the difference in the world. Back in the back half of 2018, the word more often being used when compared to that year’s first half had been “slowing.” By the later months, it was pretty obvious this was taking place no matter how many times the American unemployment rate was dusted off and trotted out in front [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 74: Geopolitical Futures Are More Than China

By |2021-05-17T16:53:32-04:00May 17th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

74.0: Allison Fedirka on Geopolitics and S. America———Ep 74.0 Summary———Geopolitical analyst Allison Fedirka explains what made some countries socioeconomic success stories, where the next emerging market stars may be, and whether a decentralized international equilibrium is in our future. ———See It———– Geopolitical Futures: https://bit.ly/3hv7Px0LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/3eN7qEiTwitter: https://twitter.com/AFedirka Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It——— Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———Ep 74.0 Topics——— 01:00 Allison Fedirka, director of analysis for Geopolitical [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making MORE Sense; Episode 73: What Did Ip Say About This Inflationary Tight Job Market?

By |2021-05-14T19:45:04-04:00May 14th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

73.0: LIVE! Reaction Answering the WSJ's Greg Ip———Ep 73.0 Intro———According to a Wall Street Journal opinion column, solid wage growth and unfilled openings point to much less labor market slack than headline unemployment data. Might the US employment situation be much better than widely believed? Might the economy take off? Jeff Snider reacts live. ———See It———– Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear [...]

More Than A Benchmark Peeve

By |2021-05-14T19:40:27-04:00May 14th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why do economic data providers continue to overstate reflationary periods? This is more substantial than a pet peeve, though to many if not most it might seem like splitting hairs. We’ve seen this happen repeatedly with each eurodollar cycle. The more egregious economic overstatements were definitely 2014’s, the data errors contributing at least something to the confusion and narrative mistake, [...]

Fifteen Greater Than Fifty: Red Hot This Is Not

By |2021-05-14T17:43:07-04:00May 14th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

American consumers binged again in April, though not much more than they had in March. Previously delivered government stipends continue to inflate retail activity if not much else. According to the Census Bureau, retail sales rose “just” 0.7% last month when compared to the month before it. Given that March had been up (revised) nearly 11% versus February, any even [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 72: Was Warren Buffett Right About Red Hot Inflation?

By |2021-05-13T19:34:13-04:00May 13th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

72.0: Warren Buffett Knows Stocks but Not Money———Ep 72.0 Summary———Warren Buffett knows stocks but not money. From 2009-12 Warren Buffett warned that emergency monetary and fiscal action would make inflation surge. He warned that the US dollar was in the hands of a profligate Congress; that Treasuries would lose real value. He was wrong. On all counts. ———See It———– Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra [...]

What CPI (and PPI)?

By |2021-05-13T19:30:20-04:00May 13th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The way it has been described since, yesterday’s CPI estimates for last month represented a seismic shift in the inflation debate. There is no more argument, apparently, and if that wasn’t apparent enough then today it was followed up with even more highly-touted evidence. Producer prices, the PPI, came up even more over-the-moon than those for consumers.The commodities portion, no [...]

The Right Mind Of China Inflation Via Automobiles

By |2021-05-12T19:42:09-04:00May 12th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I’m going to start with what might seem to be somewhat of a non sequitur if only because it’s one of those things you just have to laugh at. Researching historical cases and examples, I typically try to read as many contemporary thoughts or news articles as possible to gain a sense of what “everyone” was thinking at whichever times.In [...]

How Can Anyone In Their Right Mind Say This Much Inflation Is Transitory?

By |2021-05-12T17:33:03-04:00May 12th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Friday, July 14, 2000, was a bad day to be in Treasuries. The 10-year UST yield spiked 9 bps after the Census Bureau reported June 2000 retail sales growth had been nearly 10% year-over-year. That plus a similarly pleasant reading from the Federal Reserve for Industrial Production left bond traders rethinking their trades, a sudden burst of inflationary confidence which [...]

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