Bonds

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 43; Part 1: Inflation Per the Suasion

By |2021-01-25T14:35:23-05:00January 25th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

43.1 The Fed doesn't do Money so it offers SuasionCentral banks cannot define, identify, measure or map modern money. And they haven't been able to since the 1970s. So instead they offer "moral suasion". That's a fancy word for threats, posturing and coercion. That's all fine and well until the global economy requires money. [Emil's Summary] As many listeners have [...]

No Talk In The Dollar Shadows

By |2021-01-22T19:03:29-05:00January 22nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The company isn’t bankrupt, it just doesn’t have the right currency in its reach to repay debts coming due. YPF is Argentina’s (former) gold mine, in this case the black gold of energy exploitation. State-owned, the business has obviously close ties to the ruling powers-that-be and a privileged place to go along with them. Its formal name, Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales, [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 42; Part 2: The Other Side of TIPS

By |2021-01-22T16:50:02-05:00January 22nd, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

42.2 Real Yields Near Record Lows say Economy's AwfulReal yields recently hit RECORD lows. Yes, inflation is rising but is that due to the real economy expanding?  Real yields say, "No!". Real yields say, 'The real economy is AWFUL!' So what is driving inflation expectations higher? Fuel. Oil prices are up - but the economy isn't. [Emil’s Summary] A recent [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 42; Part 1: Doubts Keep Blooming About This QE Business

By |2021-01-20T15:11:59-05:00January 20th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

42.1 WSJ Columnist asks Fed: 'What the...?' Wall Street Journal columnist Andy Kessler recently spoke with Jeff Snider about central banks and monetary policy. He ended a recent column with, "The least the Fed can do is get out of the way. End QE now". [Emil's Summary] A recent Hidden Forces podcast with Demetri Kofinas featured professor Kevin Vallier and [...]

When They Introduced An Even Longer Gov’t Bond

By |2021-01-19T20:09:38-05:00January 19th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If you tally up the amount of local government debt and add it to the total owed by Japan’s central government, at the close of fiscal year 1991 it wasn’t too bad. The Japanese had always been fiscally responsible especially when compared to any of that nation’s big economy peers. In those early days of the “lost decade”, the balance [...]

Conventional Wisdom Is Nothing of The Sort

By |2021-01-19T11:31:10-05:00January 18th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

If you had known in October all that would transpire over the next 2 ½ months, how would you have positioned your portfolio? The conventional wisdom before the election was that a Biden win would be negative for stocks because he has promised to raise taxes and specifically corporate taxes. In 2016, conventional wisdom was that a Trump victory would [...]

Consumers, Producers, and the Unsettled End of 2020

By |2021-01-15T17:30:18-05:00January 15th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The months of November and December aren’t always easily comparable year to year when it comes to American shopping habits. For a retailer, these are the big ones. The Christmas shopping season and the amount of spending which takes place during it makes or breaks the typical year (though last year, there was that whole thing in March and April [...]

Episode 41; Part 2: Professor Copper’s Got Other Courses To Teach

By |2021-01-13T17:50:52-05:00January 13th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

41.2 Copper Prices Signal Inflation (or something else?) [Emil’s Summary] Mary Toft had delivered a litter of rabbits – that was the news that reached the court of King George I in 1726. Obstetrician John Howard arrived at Toft’s bedside in September where he was presented with several animal parts, ostensibly from the supernatural womb. In October, she delivered nine [...]

Labor Shortage Under #1 Becomes Labor Bottleneck Under #2

By |2021-01-12T19:49:46-05:00January 12th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It doesn’t quite rise to the level of the LABOR SHORTAGE!!!! fiasco, not yet, but it’s moving up toward that territory. This, of course, had been during Inflation Hysteria #1 when at its absolute peak the unemployment rate was being used to justify expectations for not just a little more in consumer prices but a lot more. In 2018, in [...]

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