The only real noteworthy aspect of this morning’s retail sales report was the dramatic downward revisions to December. I’m not sure if the temperature readings have been similarly revised, given that it is now fashionable to correlate the two, but in either case the adjustment shaved off 85 bps of Y/Y growth for sales ex autos (auto sales were revised [...]
The big news this morning seems to have been Best Buy’s “shocking” numbers. The narrative now is likely to get refocused, as the wagons will be circled and Best Buy’s horrid results will be blamed on idiosyncrasies. However, Best Buy was not the only retailer to report a disastrous holiday period, it’s the only one that has gained wide attention. [...]
We finally get a peek at the pre-shutdown consumer segment from the delayed retail sales report. There was a temporary bounce from the horrible start to the year through July, but sales have cooled off precipitously right in time for the back-to-school season. Now we know why WalMart was rumored to have been so concerned about its inventory heading into [...]
Just a day after discussing how retailers were going to be “smart” this holiday season, Bloomberg reports that WalMart is getting even “smarter”. “Wal-Mart dropped 1.6 percent after the retailer told suppliers its [sic] is cutting orders this quarter and next to address rising inventories.” The article spends a lot of effort trying to tie the WalMart move to “uncertainty” [...]
With the optimistic rhetoric of the beginning of the year fading, retailers are beginning to react to falling expectations while simultaneously hoping that even those will actually be met and not further downgraded. I could use any number of economic statistics to demonstrate this depressing the consumer impulse, and the timing of it, but it all really comes down to [...]
Walmart disappointed with its earnings announcement for Q2 2013. The string of retailer disappointments (added to Kohl’s and Macy’s) contradicts the narrative of the strengthening consumer. It also runs contrary to recent readings on consumer confidence (which in the age of QE asset inflation may not be registering what economists believe it measures). The important points from Walmart were disappointing [...]
An absolutely boring report from the Census Bureau, with every indication showing exactly what we have seen since early 2012. Again, the appearance of muddle or stasis is proving irresistible, but still not any demonstrable improvement or monetary breakthrough in the consumer segment. The slowing trend continues at levels consistent with economic contraction, not growth. The last two months’ “bounce” [...]
Following up on this morning’s analysis of structural changes in the automobile markets globally, we see the same structural observations in the labor markets. If there does exist a strong relationship between household income and auto demand, and it is pretty clear that one does, what we find in employment trends is unsurprising. The latest jobs report, including revisions to [...]
After two successive months of contraction in retail sales (in real terms), April’s estimated balance was a bounce higher. Given the volatile nature of economic data, this upward move is not unexpected. Total retail sales (including food, autos and gasoline) grew 4.5% in April 2013 Y/Y, much better than the 0.98% and 1.95% in February and March, respectively. Despite that [...]
Final revisions to Q4 2012 GDP were out today, with little surprise nor any major changes. Personal consumption expenditures were slightly lower, from adding 1.52% to GDP in the advance estimate, to 1.47% in the first revision and finally down to 1.28%. To underscore just how weak these figures are, real gross domestic purchases (the purchase of goods and services [...]
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