If there is any wonder why PMI’s deserve scorn, this morning’s twin bill delivered solid reasoning. Both the ISM Manufacturing Index and the Markit Manufacturing PMI declined, and both remained above 50. However, there was no real consensus about what any of it meant. Depending on the media outlet determining commentary about either, there was both positive and negative spin [...]
Everything I wrote in my last post on China’s PMI’s could be rewritten and reworded for the ISM version of American industry. The index rebounded to above 50 in March for the first time since last August. As noted with the Chinese PMI’s, that doesn’t necessarily mean that growth has returned only that March wasn’t likely as bad as January [...]
The Chinese Manufacturing PMI spent most of the past four and a half years straddling just the good side of 50. In fact, it hasn’t been above 52 since early 2012 – a quite remarkable feat of low variation. This fruitlessness is somewhat emblematic of China’s dilemma; no matter what they do the industrial and manufacturing sector will not catch [...]
In the manufacturing sector we find the most supreme test of economic credentials. Despite what is clearly taking place, the mainstream, orthodox outlook and assessment continues to dominate. There isn’t any doubt anymore about the manufacturing sector, as recession not only is broad enough there on its own it continues to deepen and darken. Yet, because Janet Yellen declared the [...]
On November 9, the OECD issued its twice-yearly Economic Outlook statbook, updated for projections into Q3 for most national economic accounts. Despite past enthusiasm for global prospects in 2015, the narrative has not-so-subtly shifted, a major transformation coming from an orthodox bastion like the OECD. Global growth prospects have clouded this year. Global growth has eased to around 3%, well [...]
This is fast becoming the “12% recession”, as economists and media commentary rushes to quell any notion of systemic economic retrenchment. If it isn’t “the dollar” or “overseas demand”, then surely the dramatic (and always “unexpected”) reversal of US manufacturing is but a novelty to be regarded as inconsequential on Yellen’s road to the Promised Land. Reuters author Lucia Mutikani [...]
Earlier this year, not unlike China’s monthly variation, US manufacturing appeared to be shaking off the third straight extra-cold winter. By count of the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the sector was determined (by conventional assessment) to be weak but solid and forward. That rebound contributed to both the dominant recovery idea (anything down is anomaly) as well as Yellen’s “transitory” admonishments. [...]
The ISM Manufacturing PMI was “unexpectedly” weak yet again in September. Continuing the theme spelled out by the regional manufacturing surveys (the Fed’s and the Chicago BBI), economic momentum has clearly stalled right where the “dollar” said it would. The pattern is blindingly obvious, with a huge slowdown to start the year (coincident to the first “dollar” disruptions including crude [...]
Today was, apparently, the perfect storm of downbeat PMI’s. As usual, sentiment surveys have limited value except in cases of outliers or in unanimity. There was some of both across the world’s manufacturing updates. First, which was certainly most watched, China’s PMI fell to a three-year low below 50, further suggesting that there isn’t yet a bottom for how much [...]
The best ISM Manufacturing PMI since the middle of 2011 seems to indicate better economic conditions in the middle of 2013, particularly when compared to the first few months. However, the ISM has been in the up and down pattern since the middle of last year, notably rising to 54.2 in February 2013 before collapsing again. The February number caused [...]
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