One more point for Payroll Friday: we have the productivity problem and the spending problem but there is also the wage problem. Despite what the raw, quantitative count of jobs is in the main surveys there are no wage gains associated with them. That is itself highly curious as wages overall have been locked into a narrow range since the [...]
With the lunacy of “payroll Friday” on full display, it isn’t much of a surprise to get overwhelmed by commentary that totally upends what investing used to be. There once was a mythical relationship that spanned and nurtured between stocks and the real economy. The former was representative about what to expect in the latter, and the latter benefited from [...]
A stumble even in the Establishment Survey is not at all unexpected even in the best of times (in reality as opposed to purely statistical assumptions), however the furor unleashed over the March “weakness” is everything you need to know about how much surety rests within the estimate to begin with. Like human psychology, anyone who possesses a high degree [...]
There isn’t a whole lot to say about the payroll report this month, as there hasn’t been much that is different. The Establishment Survey continues to dazzle, while the Household Survey lags (factoring the monthly volatility) and the labor force itself undercounts with the exception of what looks suspiciously like a discontinuity for January (when the labor force jumped by [...]
Payroll Friday lived up to its recent billing, offering those who see the economy as booming their headlines while providing nothing beyond that by which to confirm it. There is maybe a growing sense, given market action (especially bonds), that the headlines are becoming less “moving” and that this disparity has been internalized more so than at any time in [...]
The juxtaposition could not be more fitting with all that is transpiring at this moment in economic history. On Monday, the headlines were filled with, Black Friday Fizzles as Sales Tumble 11% and ‘Black Friday’ Fades as Weekend Retail Sinks 11%. Then the “employment” report comes out and now the headlines are, More Jobs and Higher Wages: U.S. Recovery Starts [...]
The latest August figures for the JOLTS companion to the payroll climate continue to raise the possibility of statistical corruptions. Back in June, the level of job openings suddenly and very sharply spiked upward. That was used as confirmation of the ongoing surge in employment, but without attribution as to how closely job openings relate to payroll indications through the [...]
The payroll and labor data from September is not appreciably different from that of August, despite the large disparity in how each was received. Nothing has changed as far as the inconsistencies in the internal data pieces. The Establishment Survey endures in a straight line as it has for years. The Household Survey continues to undercount such job growth, still [...]
If you limited yourself to only the official unemployment rate the picture you get of the economy is seemingly one that fits very much inside historical expectations. The rate rose and fell just like it “should” in a recession/recovery cycle. That raises the question about why this period has been so divergent with past expectations. When even the Federal Reserve [...]
Despite any intent, the revisions to wages and real incomes that I highlighted yesterday actually go a long way toward providing an explanation for other “aberrations” that still exist. The primary problem I have with accepting the mainstream version of economic events, particularly that of the Establishment Survey, is that the labor force is still shrinking, or at least barely [...]
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