Going only from the conventional interpretation of the optimistic 242,000 in payroll gains Friday, it is still remarkable how more than one-fifth of those purported job creations in February were due to activity in retail trade alone. The monthly variation estimate for the retail sector (not including wholesale or transportation of goods) was an especially robust +55k even though the [...]
Having established the farcical nature of wage interpretations on the shortest time scale, a wider contextual framework leads in the same direction of doubt. The point of any interest rate hike for monetary policymakers is to head off “inflation” before it gets out of hand; the economy “overheating.” Having undertaken sufficient (it is assumed) stimulus to surpass whatever hysteresis calculations, [...]
The February payroll estimate for the Establishment Survey was 242,000 with upward revisions to December and January, so we are told the labor market is surging once more. Last month when the Establishment Survey suggested “only” 151,000 (before revisions) it was taken as disappointing even though there is statistically no difference between 151k and 242k (a 90% confidence interval leaves [...]
There can be no doubt as to the manufacturing recession in the US, a direct reflection of US consumers. In a fitting confirmation of Chinese manufacturing, US factory orders declined for the 15th consecutive month in January 2016. The year-over-year decline was 3.3%, only slightly better than the revised 4.2% in December, but the length of this continuous decline means [...]
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