A couple more points about GDP revisions and the outlook for Q2. First, with inventory revisions factored, GDP less the inventory contribution was -1.03%; worse than last year’s polar vortex problem. It was the worst quarterly result since the Great Recession, which more than suggests economic weakness as more than just winter or seasonal adjustments. If there is any seasonal [...]
At some point in the middle of the last century, economics of money shifted to economics of psychology. When Milton Friedman wrote his 1963 book, A Monetary History, it was an effort that uncovered the role of money in the collapse of the Great Depression as he and his co-author, Anna Schwartz, saw it. Whether or not it was a [...]
With the publication of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimates we get a better sense as to how not only the GDP calculations work internally (something largely hidden until now) but how GDP figures evolve with new pieces of information and settings. Along with their webpage snaphshot, the Fed branch has opened up its Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet for the whole world [...]
The monthly PCE and income figures that were released this week were already incorporated into the advance estimate for Q1 GDP. Given that March wasn’t as bad as it could have been, and that PCE within the GDP report was, that kind of gives you a sense for the serious deterioration in the US consumer; “unexpectedly.” If there is a [...]
Both Keynesians and monetarists are almost entirely focused on demand, aiming squarely at spending as the means to economic growth. Since 2008, and really 2007, the amount of “stimulus” recorded in that attempt to beckon “aggregate demand” is unlike anything ever seen before. Trillions and trillions of QE-drawn magic have been unleashed as well as government deficits as large as [...]
Personal spending had fallen, seasonally-adjusted, for two consecutive months placing warning upon the household sector. The just-released estimates for January show only the smallest of rebounds, just +0.1%, in February suggesting that nothing yet has been resolved in either direction. Unlike last year, there is no surge that would indicate a temporary straying from the otherwise only tepid path. This [...]
Part of the rewriting of GDP in the middle of last year involved adding more components that are not directly observable, leaving them susceptible to more imputations and adjustment processes than GDP normally counts. Changing “fixed investment” to include less well-defined concepts like R&D, “intellectual property” and “entertainment” makes sense intuitively until you actually try to piece together how they [...]
Stocks had a great day today unshaken by whether the manufacturing part of the economy was growing more quickly or at the slowest rate in 13 months. Confusion isn’t part of the asset inflation lexicon. In economic news, the U.S. manufacturing sector had its best gains since October, according to Markit's final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index that rose to 55.1 [...]
Today’s employment release has been described, in numerous places, as “perfect.” I am hard-pressed to disagree, as the report itself contained absolutely everything an economist would want to show payroll strength (economic strength is another matter entirely). The Establishment Survey itself was overshadowed, though satisfying, by the Household Survey and especially a jump in the labor force. By the numbers: [...]
With the Chinese manufacturing indications “unexpectedly” disappointing over the weekend it was absolutely no surprise that US estimates of income and especially spending would as well. These overall, broader figures align closely with other indications of a dangerously weak household sector, very much explaining why the rest of the world is screaming about impending contraction. For all that intuitive sense [...]
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