It makes a very interesting contrast, to start the week under cloud of suspicion only to end it with its reverse. Economic data was routinely awful earlier, though for the most part financial markets are moved more by how that might make Janet Yellen feel than anything of a fundamental basis for all those prices. Typically, the ISM surveys are [...]
Since Q1 GDP was revised lower by almost 1% that meant estimates of productivity were going to be even more out of alignment than they were at the first release. Of course, in a less massaged environment productivity might have preserved some sense if there was less rigidity from the BLS on the employment side. In other words, when “output” [...]
I understand the idea behind trying to get exports to fit into the orthodox conventions about the dollar and global trade, even if I don’t agree with that at all, as it at least makes some plausible sense. If the dollar is up against trade partners, in simple math terms you might expect to see fewer US exports heading overseas [...]
Part 1 is here, Orderly or Not (short version: not). Also noted yesterday, the Fed sees no risks of bubble trouble because they are looking at it all from the 2008 perspective. That is completely wrong-headed; if there is a “next one” it will have nothing to do with subprime mortgages, or even mortgages and real estate. By March 2007, [...]
I generally remain noncommittal about giving specific predictions about the future because there is simply no way toward predilection. We can think about probabilities as a guide for analysis, particularly in setting investment guidelines, but to offer targets for factors like GDP or some stock index is pointless. Even now, with all that is taking place of economic unraveling, there [...]
You may have heard recently about the Transportation Safety Administration’s record for safety measures in airline transportation. The task with which the government agency is charged has become a bit of a joke, with public perception almost of a gang of thieves running a sanctioned-criminal enterprise. The groping and stealing are held back, with apathy and inertia on its side, [...]
The unifying element of the prospect for recession in 2015 is how it will reveal the hugely mistaken assumptions that were taken on faith alone. Entering 2008, for example, the FOMC kept some plausibility because of the housing debacle. A convenient scapegoat, the Fed proclaimed that recession was a danger on housing alone, and so its mistakes were met as [...]
If there is some small gain to be had from current economic circumstances, it might be a lesson in what the dollar is and what it is not. Just a few months ago the idea of the “strong dollar” was almost ubiquitous, scarcely any shaky economic commentary could be found without mentioning that as the trump to the upside. It [...]
When the BLS models payroll expansion they don’t actually count payroll expansion. In the 1960’s, economic accounting shifted to mostly stochastic processes which changed the way mainstream economic statistics were calculated and kept. We all know, particularly recently, about how these data series are constantly revised, and often by more than minor adjustments, but that in some ways obscures the [...]
Personal spending fell slightly in April, making three of the last five months for declines. Such a sustained slump is actually quite rare, and you have to go back to the Great Recession to find anything like it in recent history. There are a few reasons for this now-accumulated downtrend, but it always starts with income. While personal income has [...]
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