As is usually the case, ShopperTrak was cautiously optimistic about holiday retail sales for 2012. In September 2012, the firm estimated total spending growth to be about 3.3% above 2011, with a more modest 2.8% increase Y/Y in foot traffic. By January 2013, it appeared as if total retail sales only grew at a 2.5% rate. That was down from [...]
While everyone gears up for the holiday season, particularly the Christmas break, economists and retailers are on the edge of their computer screens trying to determine and gauge the health of the economy. Is QE finally working? The latest retail sales figures seemed to have provided some optimism toward that conclusion. But this is also the time of the year [...]
With a view on credit and dollar markets, there is already the unsettling prospect of markets moving beyond unshakable belief in the efficacy of monetary intrusions. I cannot help but wonder if that is beginning to extend into the real economy as well. There can be little but retribution over the growing disaster that is the holiday sales season. Stock [...]
There is something very much broken in the media, particularly with regard to economic reporting. I have already commented more times than I care about the overemphasis on logical fallacies, but the proportionality of the disconnect only grows with share price inflation. Under the headline, Bull Market Shows No Sign of Death With Yellen Support, this Bloomberg article begins, “The [...]
The latest estimates of durable goods manufacturing was a blow to the idea that economic momentum had been gathering over the summer. Orders had rebounded almost to what you would expect in a more stable growth environment, but the level of shipments never quite caught up to them. Shipments (ex transportation) were up only 1.71% in October 2013 over October [...]
Holiday sales estimates are already being trimmed, with the current year set to be the weakest since the Great Recession. Of course, it matters whether or not you have access to asset inflation, as retailers for the more affluent are expecting better results. Reuters spells it out succinctly, “As result, low-income Americans will again have a less-merry season than affluent [...]
The BEA estimated that GDP in Q3 accelerated to 2.8% over Q2 2013, coincidentally matching the Q/Q growth rate from Q3 2012 (more on that in a moment). The largest “boosts” to GDP came from tumbling imports and growing inventories. Those two segments accounted for 1.2% in additional “growth” over Q2. While inventories rose and consumers and businesses bought less [...]
We finally get a peek at the pre-shutdown consumer segment from the delayed retail sales report. There was a temporary bounce from the horrible start to the year through July, but sales have cooled off precipitously right in time for the back-to-school season. Now we know why WalMart was rumored to have been so concerned about its inventory heading into [...]
I suppose there is more than one way to interpret K-Mart’s decision to air the first Christmas ad 105 days before the actual holiday, but to most sane people it was a sign of creeping pessimism. Retailers have already been behind in their sales expectations for much of the first half of the year, despite relatively uniform optimism at the [...]
Last week it was Target’s turn to turn in a disappointing quarterly report. While being quite unique in blaming Canada, even the results in the US segment were lackluster, at best. Earnings expectations for the fiscal year were dimmed back in May, from a range of $4.85 to $5.05 down to $4.70 to $4.90. The latest estimates, concurrent with Q2’s [...]
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